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化肥施用强度时空演变特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Chemical Fertilizer Intensity

  • 摘要: 推动农业绿色发展是促进我国乡村生态文明及农业现代化同步发展的迫切需求,化肥施用强度是影响农业绿色发展的重要因素。基于2011—2020年我国省份面板数据,运用完全分解模型从区域层面分解化肥施用强度变动驱动力,并用面板回归法分析化肥强度变动的影响因素,以期为推进化肥减量工作提供参考依据。结果表明:中国化肥施用强度先升后降,呈自东向西递减分布;就累计变化看,中国化肥施用强度下降主要受效率驱动,驱动率达94.48%,结构调整驱动率为5.52%,其中西部的种植结构调整驱动了我国化肥强度增加;经济发展水平对我国及东部、中部、西部地区化肥施用强度的影响均符合“倒U形”曲线规律,人口规模、农地经营规模、作物播种结构,农业技术水平、城镇化水平对化肥施用强度有显著影响,但各地区影响因素有所不同。

     

    Abstract: Promoting the green development of agriculture is an urgent need to promote the rural ecological civilization and synchronous development of agricultural modernization in China.The intensity of chemical fertilizer application is an important factor affecting the green development of agriculture.Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2011 to 2020,the complete decomposition model is used to decompose the driving force on the change of chemical fertilizer intensity at the regional level, and panel regression method is used to analyze the influencing factors of fertilizer intensity change, in order to provide reference basis for promoting the reduction of fertilizer production.The results showed that the chemical fertilizer intensity in China increased first and then decreased, showing a decreasing distribution from east to west.In terms of cumulative changes, the decrease of fertilizer intensity in China is mainly driven by efficiency, with a driving rate of 94.48% and structural adjustment driving rate of 5.52%,among them, the adjustment of planting structure in the West drove the increase of fertilizer intensity in China.The impact of economic development on the intensity of chemical fertilizer in China, eastern, central and western regions conformed to the law of ‘inverted U’ curve.Population size, agricultural land management scale, crop planting structure, agricultural technology level and urbanization level had a significant impact on chemical fertilizer intensity, but the influencing factors varied from region to region.

     

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