Abstract:
The outbreak of novel coronavirus has affected the supply chain badly. The offline wholesale and retail of fresh commodities, such as vegetables and fruits, have been severely held back. However, the online fresh produce business has embraced a new round of development. The main purpose of the research is to forecast the sales volume of fresh e-commerce through the fractional order grey prediction model so as to resolve the imbalance between supply and demand of fresh products during the epidemic. In this paper, a fractional order grey forecasting model was built to forecast the demand for fresh products, which was verified by introducing Ganfuyuan sales data from the perspective of fresh produce consumers. The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) fitting values of four fruits(lemon, cherry, apple and dragon fruit) were 8.61%, 7.15%, 7.16% and 6.81% respectively. Those practical values were less than the predicted values using grey prediction model or single exponential smoothing(SES)method. The mean absolute percentage error of predicted values was less than 10% on average. The results showed that the model was suitable for e-commerce fresh produce suppliers to forecast the sales volume of fresh products.