Abstract:
China is the country with the largest soybean consumption and import in the world. In order to accurately predict the future consumption and production of soybean in China and maintain the safety of soybean supply in China, this study proposed the Grey-Markov prediction model for soybean consumption prediction, used GM(1,1) model and Grey-Markov model to fit the China′s soybean consumption from 2017 to 2020. Then, we used the model with higher precision to predict China′s soybean consumption and production from 2021 to 2025. The results showed that the Grey-Markov model had higher prediction accuracy. The forecast results with Grey-Markov model showed the gap between China′s soybean supply and demand of 2021—2025 will be 1 037, 1 087, 1 140, 1 195 and 1 253 million tons respectively, and the annual growth rates of China′s soybean production and consumption will be 6.06% and 5.01% respectively. Finally, according to the forecast data, it was suggested that China should make great efforts to diversify soybean imports and develop domestic soybean industry to improve food security.