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我国大豆进口依赖性风险生成机理分析:基于相互依存视角

Analysis on the Generation Mechanism of Dependence Risk of China′s Soybean Import: From the Perspective of Interdependence

  • 摘要: 我国大豆进口规模屡创新高、进口来源高度集中、进口依存度不断攀升,进口来源与稳定性面临着严峻的风险,威胁国家粮食安全。本文基于我国与主要大豆出口国相互依存的视角,构建依赖性风险评价指数,考察我国大豆进口依赖性风险的整体水平,以及从不同国家进口大豆存在的进口依赖性风险水平的差异,进一步构建实证模型明晰其生成机理。结果表明:我国从美国和巴西进口大豆存在进口依赖性风险,而美国和巴西是我国最主要的两大进口来源国,因而我国大豆进口依赖性风险形势严峻。我国进口大豆之所以存在依赖性风险,一方面,是由于主要大豆出口国大豆供给能力较强,导致我国易于对其产生较高的依赖性;另一方面,由于我国大豆进口需求上涨,对国际市场的依赖有所增强。基于研究结果,提出建立健全、完备的大豆风险监测预警体系、完善多元化大豆进口布局、增强大豆供应链韧性、提升国内大豆生产能力等防范和化解大豆进口依赖性风险的对策建议。

     

    Abstract: The situation that China′s soybean imports have broken through new highs and the import sources are highly concentrated, and the degree of dependence on import is rising, led to severe risks for the availability and stability of soybean import source, threatening China′s food security. In this paper, the dependence risk of China′s soybean import was examined both on the whole and individually, and the generation mechanism of China′s soybean import dependence risk was analyzed and examined through constructing a model. The results showed that, there were import dependency risk for China′s soybean imports from the United States and Brazil, two top source countries for China′s soybean imports, which indicated that the risk situation is severe. It is, on the one hand, due to the strong supply capacity of major soybean exporting countries, which makes it easy for China to depend highly on them, and on the other hand, due to the increasing demand for soybean imports in China, which makes the dependence risk of China′s soybean import increasing. Based on the research results, suggestions are proposed to establish a sound and comprehensive soybean risk monitoring and warning system, improve diversified soybean import layout, enhance the resilience of soybean supply chain and domestic soybean production capacity.

     

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