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外生冲击下中国大豆产业安全:现状、挑战与机遇

Analysis of China′s Soybean Industry Safety under Exogenous Impact: Current Situation, Challenges and Opportunities

  • 摘要: 2018年以来,中美贸易摩擦频发,新冠疫情在全球范围内持续发酵,大豆贸易不确定性加剧。一系列的外生冲击改变了国际贸易环境,也使我国大豆产业发展面临巨大的挑战。本文通过梳理我国大豆产业的现状,分析了多重冲击给大豆国际贸易及我国大豆产业安全带来的重大影响。指出我国大豆进口来源高度集中,外生冲击引发的大豆市场动荡为我国大豆贸易的长期发展带来隐患,但也具备潜在的发展机遇。我国应当利用好外生冲击发生的时机,结合“一带一路”倡议积极拓宽大豆进口来源,降低进口高度依赖的风险,保障我国大豆产业持续安全健康发展。

     

    Abstract: Since 2018, Sino-Us trade friction have occurred frequently. The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to ferment globally, and the uncertainty of soybean trade has intensified. This paper analyzed the impact of multiple shocks on soybean international trade and China′s soybean industry security. It is pointed out that the source of soybean import was highly concentrated in China, and the instability of soybean market caused by exogenous shock brings hidden danger to the long-term development of China’s soybean trade, but it also had potential development opportunity. China should make good use of the opportunity of exogenous shocks, and actively broaden the source of soybean imports combined with the initiative of ‘The Belt and Road’ to reduce the risk of high dependence on imports, and ensure the sustainable, safe and healthy development of China′s soybean industry.

     

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