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兰州市土地利用碳排放研究

Research on land-use carbon emissions in Lanzhou City

  • 摘要: 【目的】分析兰州市2009~2020年土地利用及其碳排放的变化趋势与关联程度,为兰州市实现“双碳”目标和低碳城市建设提供科学依据。【方法】基于兰州市2009~2020年的土地利用变更数据、能源与农用化学品消耗数据,计算土地利用多样化指数与动态度,对兰州市土地利用的变化进行分析;构建土地利用碳排放测算模型,对兰州市土地利用碳排放进行核算与变化趋势分析;选用灰色关联分析法对兰州市土地利用及其碳排放进行关联度分析。【结果】2009~2020年间,兰州市土地利用多样化指数从0.602 9增加到0.647 6;土地利用净碳排放量从2161.23万t下降到2 113.70万t;耕地、草地、水域、其他用地、林地、建设用地、园地与净碳排放量的灰色关联度分别为0.90、0.91、0.89、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.89。【结论】2009~2020年兰州市土地利用多样化指数呈现增长的趋势,土地利用结构趋于多样化;2009~2020年兰州市碳源与净碳排放量总体呈现下降的趋势,碳汇在2019开始逐渐增长;兰州市碳排放体系中,建设用地是最大的碳源地,林地是最大的碳汇地;兰州市草地、耕地、林地、建设用地面积的变化与净碳排放量变化的关系密切。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 This paper aimed to analyze the change trend and correlation degree of land use and carbon emission in Lanzhou from 2009 to 2020,providing a scientific basis for Lanzhou achieving the goals of " carbon peaking and carbon neutrality " and building a low-carbon city.【Method】 Based on the data on land use change,energy and agricultural chemical consumption in Lanzhou from 2009 to 2020,land use diversity index and dynamic attitude were calculated to analyze the change in land use in Lanzhou. The calculation model of land-use carbon emissions was constructed to calculate and analyze the change trend of land-use carbon emissions in Lanzhou. Grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation degree of land use and carbon emission in Lanzhou.【Result】 From 2009 to 2020,the land-use diversity index increased from 0. 602 9 to 0. 647 6. Net carbon emissions from land use decreased from 21. 612,300tons to 21. 137 00 tons. The grey correlation of the net carbon emission with cultivated land,grassland,water area,other land,forest land,construction land and garden land was 0. 90,0. 91,0. 89,0. 90,0. 90,0. 90,0. 89,respectively.【Conclusion】 From 2009 to 2020,the land use diversity index showed an upward trend,and the land use structure tended to be diversified. From 2009 to 2020,the carbon source and net carbon emissions in Lanzhou showed a downward trend,while the carbon sink began to increase gradually in 2019.In the system of carbon emission in Lanzhou City,the construction land is the largest carbon source and forest land is the largest carbon sink. The change of net carbon emissions is closely linked to the change of grassland,cultivated land,forest land and construction land area in Lanzhou City.

     

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