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1991~2020年鄂州市旱涝演变特征分析

Analysis of drought and flood transformation in Ezhou City from 1991 to 2020

  • 摘要: 【目的】近年来鄂州市旱涝灾害时有发生,本研究探讨了鄂州市近30 a来的旱涝时空演变特征,研究结果可以为鄂州市合理构建干旱预警评估指标提供数据和理论支持。【方法】通过计算不同时间尺度的SPEI,并应用线性回归、M-K检验等统计方法分析了鄂州市旱涝的演变及持续特征,最后利用通径分析方法对影响旱涝的气象因素进行了分析。【结果】鄂州市中度及以下旱涝受旱几率高于受涝几率,而重度及以上旱涝正好相反;鄂州市整体变旱,但季节略有差异,其中春季、夏季和冬季变旱,秋季变涝;鄂州市旱涝发生季节差异明显,其中夏季易旱,但持续时间较短;春季易涝,持续时间长;降水量直接决定鄂州市旱涝程度,其次是蒸散量,而蒸散量的大小与气温关系密切。【结论】SPEI适用于研究鄂州市旱涝演变特征,可以作为气候变化和预警发布的监测指标。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 In recent years,drought and flood disasters occurred frequently in Ezhou City.This study discussed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and flood in Ezhou City in the past 30 years. The research results can provide data and theoretical support for the reasonable construction of drought early warning evaluation indicators in Ezhou City.【Method】 The evolution and persistence characteristics of drought and flood in Ezhou city in recent 30 years were analyzed,and their influencing factors were explored by using Mann Kendall test,linear regression and path analysis based on the data of national meteorological stations and 1km high resolution grid data in Ezhou city from 1991 to 2020,in which the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) of multi-time scales was calculated.【Result】 Whether mild or moderate drought or flood,the probability of drought is greater than that of flood,which is diametrically opposite to the Severe or extreme drought and flood;The Ezhou becomes drought-free on the whole,but the seasons vary slightly,among which spring,summer and winter become drought-free,and autumn becomes waterlogging;The drought and flood have obvious seasonal differences in Ezhou city. The summer is prone to drought,but the duration is short. The spring is prone to waterlogging and lasts a long time,(4)The precipitation has the greatest impact on drought and flood in Ezhou City,followed by evapotranspiration,which is closely related to temperature.【Conclusion】 Therefore,the SPEI is suitable for studying the evolution characteristics of drought and flood in Ezhou city,and can be used as a monitoring index of climate change and early warning.

     

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