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黑河地区气象因子对大豆品种黑河43产量构成的影响

Effects of Meteorological Factors on Yield of Soybean Variety Heihe 43 in Heihe Region

  • 摘要: 目前国内种植面积最大的大豆品种黑河43,产量多年表现较稳定,为探索气象因子对其产量构成的影响,本研究利用2017-2021年连续5年黑河市气象局所观测的气象因子数据,监测黑龙江省农业科学院黑河分院试验基地中黑河43的产量构成因子,对气象因子与产量因子进行相关性分析,建立适合黑河地区的大豆产量预报模型。结果表明:黑河43产量构成与6月平均温度和7月降水量正相关性较强,与9月降水量和7月日照时数呈显著负相关;利用多元线性回归分析,建立了黑河43产量构成的气象因子回归方程Y=3 048.903-3.573X1+2.387X2-3.099X3+0.03X4,表明7月日照时数(X1)、6月降水量(X2)、9月降水量(X3)、7月平均温度(X4)对黑河43的产量构成具有显著作用。该回归方程可有效监测大豆品种黑河43的产量情况,并预测其产量。

     

    Abstract: At present, Heihe 43,the soybean variety with the largest planting area in China, has a relatively stable yield for many years.In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors on its yield, this study used the meteorological factor data observed by the Heihe Meteorological Bureau for five consecutive years from 2017 to 2021 to monitor Heihe 43 yield composition factor in the branch test base of Heihe Branch of Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences.The correlation analysis between the meteorological factor and the yield factor, and the establishment of a soybean yield forecast model which is suitable for Heihe region.The results showed that the yield composition of Heihe 43 had a strong positive correlation with the average temperature in June and precipitation in July, and a noteworthy negative correlation with the precipitation in September and sunshine hours in July.The estimated yield of Heihe 43 was established in use of Multiple Linear Regression analysis.The formed meteorological factor regression equation was Y=3 048.903-3.573X1+2.387X2-3.099X3+0.03X4,indicated that the sunshine hours in July(X1),the precipitation in June(X2),the precipitation in September(X3) and the monthly average temperature in July(X4) had a significant effect on the yield composition.The regression equation can effectively monitor the yield of soybean variety Heihe 43 and predict its yield.

     

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