Abstract:
In order to mitigate the fluctuation of beef price in China and ensure the stability of the horizontal transmission price system of beef, this study selected the monthly data of domestic beef price, domestic mutton price and imported beef price from October 2012 to July 2020.Using vector autoregressive model(VAR model) and vector error correction model(VEC model) and partial adjustment model, Granger causality test, impulse response function, limited distribution lag model, markov switching models(MS-VAR model)analyzed the domestic price of beef, lamb and imported beef price between the horizontal transmission mechanism. The results showed that there was a long-term co-integration relationship between domestic beef price, domestic mutton price and imported beef price. The domestic beef price was mainly affected by imported beef price in the long run, and by domestic mutton price in the short run.The dynamic adjustment coefficient of domestic beef price was 0.224 4, and the adjustment speed was relatively slow.The price of imported beef and the price of domestic mutton had one-way conduction effect on the price of domestic beef.The domestic beef price was mainly affected by the lag period one, as well as the positive impact of the imported frozen beef price with the lag period two or the a period three, and the domestic mutton price with the lag periods two-five in which the impact of the domestic mutton price was stronger.Imported beef prices and domestic mutton prices were mainly affected by the impact of their own price lag.Both the imported beef price and the domestic mutton price had a significant positive impact on the domestic beef price at the 1% level, among which the domestic mutton price had a relatively greater impact, while the imported beef price had a relatively small impact.Domestic beef price was generally stable, interspersed with low and rising prices.Therefore, suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening the price monitoring and early warning of relevant meat market, improving beef import links, expanding beef import channels, regulating and intervening in beef prices at the right time.