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欧拉羊生长曲线拟合分析

Fitting analysis of growth curve of Oula sheep

  • 摘要: 为了研究欧拉羊生长发育规律,试验选取体重相近的初生欧拉羊公羊163只、母羊27只,测定初生和8,18,30,36月龄体重,计算平均日增重;采用Logistic、Gompertz和Von Bertalanffy 3种非线性回归模型对欧拉羊进行生长曲线拟合分析,然后使用3种模型估算欧拉羊8,18,30,36月龄的体重、拐点月龄、拐点体重、最大月增重、相对生长率、绝对生长率,并比较分析欧拉羊公母羊的平均体重和平均日增重,以及模型估计值和实测值,并构建累计生长曲线、相对生长曲线和绝对生长曲线。结果表明:3种模型均能较好地对欧拉羊公母羊的生长曲线进行拟合(R2>0.960),3种模型的拟合度几乎一致,拟合出的公羊拐点月龄均迟于母羊,拐点体重均高于母羊。公羊的相对生长率和绝对生长率均呈下降趋势,且早期的生长强度比后期的生长强度大。Logistic模型拟合的公羊体重估计值与实测值更接近,是公羊生长曲线最佳模型,模型表达式为Y(t)=84.279/1+7.145×exp(-0.215t)。Von Bertalanffy模型拟合的母羊体重估计值与实测值更接近,是母羊生长曲线最佳模型,模型表达式为Y(t)=70.295×1-0.483×exp(-0.118t)3。说明Logistic模型更加适用于拟合欧拉羊公羊的生长,Von Bertalanffy模型更加适用于拟合欧拉羊母羊的生长。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the growth and development of Oula sheep, newborn Oula sheep(163 rams and 27 ewes) with similar body weight were selected as the research objects, and their body weight was measured at newborn, 8, 18, 30 and 36 months of age. Three nonlinear regression models(Logistic, Gompertz and Von Bertalanffy) were used to fit the growth curve of Oula sheep, and the three models were used to estimate the body weight, inflection point age, inflection point weight, maximum monthly increase, relative growth rate and absolute growth rate of Oula sheep at 8, 18, 30, 36 months of age. The measured body weight and average daily gain, model estimation and measured value of male and female Oula sheeps were compared and analyzed, and the cumulative growth curve, relative growth curve and absolute growth curve were constructed. The results showed that the growth curves of male and female Oula sheep were well fitted by the three models(R~2>0.960), and the fitting degree of the three models was almost the same. The inflexion point age of male sheep was later than that of female sheep, and the inflexion point weight was higher than that of female sheep. The relative growth rate and absolute growth rate of rams showed a downward trend, and their early growth intensity was greater than that of the later period. The estimated weight of ram fitted by Logistic model was closer to the measured value, which was the best model for the growth curve of ram. The expression of the model was Y(t)=84.279/1+7.145×exp(-0.215t). The estimated weight of ewes fitted by Von Bertalanffy model was closer to the measured value, which was the best model of ewes growth curve, and the model expression was Y(t)=70.295 ×1-0.483×exp(-0.118t)~3. The results indicated that the Logistic model was more suitable for the growth of Oula rams, and the Von Bertalanffy model was more suitable for the growth of Oula ewes.

     

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