高级检索+

龙陵黄山羊生长曲线拟合与分析

Fitting and analysis of growth curve of Longling yellow goats

  • 摘要: 为了比较Von Bertalanffy、Gompertz、Logistic 3种非线性生长曲线模型对龙陵黄山羊生长曲线的拟合效果,试验测定了90只(公母各45只)龙陵黄山羊初生及3,6,9,12,18,24,36月龄体重,采用拟合度(R2)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)作为3种生长曲线模型的评价指标,采用拟合估计值与实测值之间的Pearson相关系数作为模型有效性的检验指标,确定最适拟合龙陵黄山羊生长曲线的模型。结果表明:Von Bertalanffy模型估计龙陵黄山羊公母羊拐点月龄分别为3.96,4.53月龄,拐点体重分别为13.12,12.33 kg,且母羊比公羊更早达到成熟体重。公母羊生长曲线均以Von Bertalanffy模型拟合效果最优,其R2值最大(公母羊分别为0.988 3,0.986 9),MSE值(公母羊分别为3.176 7,3.419 8)和MAE值(公母羊分别为1.153 8,1.290 0)最小。3种模型公母羊估计值与体重实测值的Pearson相关系数均以Von Bertalanffy模型最大,公母羊分别为0.994 2,0.993 5。说明VonBertalanffy模型对龙陵黄山羊生长曲线的拟合效果最好。

     

    Abstract: This paper aimed at comparing appropriateness of three non-linear growth curves(Von Bertalanffy、Gompertz、Logistic)to describe growth curve of Longling yellow goats.The weight of 90 Longling yellow goats(45 male and 45 female) at birth, 3, 6, 9, 12,18,24 and 36 months of age were measured in this experiment. Fitting degree(R~2), mean square error(MSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) were used as evaluation indexes of the three growth curve models, and Pearson correlation coefficient between fitting estimated value and measured value was used as validation index to analyze the model that best fit the growth curve of Longling yellow goats. The results showed that the inflection age of male and female Longling yellow goats estimated by Von Bertalanffy model were 3.96 months, 4.53 months, respectively, and the inflection weight were 13.12 kg, 12.33 kg respectively, and the female goats reached the mature weight earlier than the male goats. Von Bertalanffy model was the best fitting method for the growth curves of male and female goats, with the maximum R~2 value(male and female goats were 0.988 3, 0.986 9, respectively), the minimum MSE value(male and female goats were 3.176 7, 3.419 8, respectively) and MAE value(male and female goats were 0.153 8, 1.290 0, respectively). Among the three models, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the estimated value and the measured value of body weight in male and female goats was the largest in Von Bertalanffy model, which were 0.994 2, 0.993 5 for male and female goats, respectively. The results indicated that Von Bertalanffy model had the best fitting effect on the growth curve of Longling yellow goats.

     

/

返回文章
返回