Abstract:
In order to understand the fluctuating characteristics of hog price in Shandong Province, descriptive statistical method, X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method were used to study the fluctuation characteristics of hog prices in Shandong Province from January 2003 to December 2022 from the perspectives of time, industry chain and region. The results showed that from January 2003 to December 2022, there had been 5 relatively complete price fluctuations in Shandong Province. The average cycle was about 45.4 months. The first 4 times showed the characteristics of “echelon rise, echelon fall”. The fifth time showed obvious “surge and plunge”, but the overall trend was still rising. The price fluctuations within the year were significant, showing an asymmetric “W” trend of heavy left and light right, with high prices at the beginning, end of year, July, and August, with low prices in April, May, and October. The effects of seasonal factors presented the characteristics of ‘three peaks and two valleys’, and the time was consistent with the price trend within the year. The price level of hog price was high in the southwest and low in the northeast, the price fluctuation frequency and market integration degree of hog price was high in the southeast and low in the northwest in Shandong Province, and the market connection between different regions was weak, which increased the possibility of policy control failure. Therefore, it was recommended to appropriately develop large-scale breeding, improve the policy of pork collection and storage, optimize the price early warning mechanism, strengthen the prevention and control of pig diseases, and ultimately achieve market stability and sustainable development of the industry.