The impact of pig epidemic on pork price ——An empirical study based on dynamic space panel model

Pork prices fluctuated sharply due to a major epidemic. Based on the monthly data of pork prices and related epidemics in China from 2004 to 2018, the spatial autocorrelation test of pork prices was conducted, and a dynamic spatial Dubin model was established to empirically analyze the impact of epidemics on pork prices from the perspective of economic geography. The results showed that the pork price in China had a significant spatial positive self-correlation, and the agglomeration effect was obvious, the eastern region was characterized as "high-high agglomeration" and the central and western regions were "low-low agglomeration". The epidemic had a significant impact on pork prices in both short and long term, but the direction of the effect was uncertain. The depth of the epidemic would inhibit pork prices, while the spread of the epidemic would push up pork prices. The spatial spillover effect of pig epidemic was significant in the short term. The outbreak of pig epidemic will not only affect the local pork prices, but also have a significant impact on pork prices in neighboring areas.It shows that the prevention and control of pig epidemic is of great significance to stabilize pork prices.