A study on the structural impact of poultry diseases on egg chain prices in the main production areas

In order to investigate the structural impact of poultry diseases on egg industry chain prices, based on the panel data of 12 provinces in the main egg producing areas from January 2013 to December 2020, the study selected laying hens complementary feed price, commercial laying hen chick price, culled hen price, and egg price to represent the upstream and downstream factor prices of the egg industry chain. By introducing exogenous agent variables of poultry disease, panel vector autoregression（PVAR） model was used to investigate the direct effects of poultry disease on the prices of various factors in the egg industry chain. The direction and intensity of the influence between the price of egg industry chain were further analyzed. The results showed that the poultry epidemic caused commercial laying hen chick price, culled hen price, and egg price to fall in 1-2 months, and the three prices to rise in 2-4 months. The fluctuation of egg price caused by poultry diseases was obviously transmitted upstream along the industrial chain, which had a continuous impact on laying hens complementary feed price, commercial laying hen chick price, and culled hen price, delaying the recovery time of the upstream factor prices of the industrial chain. During the epidemic period of poultry diseases, commercial laying hen chick price had a prominent impact on the price of the entire egg industry chain. In view of this, the author suggested that we should timely launch the market support policy according to the trend of poultry disease, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the price of eggs in the whole industry chain, pay close attention to the price trend of egg production input costs, actively explore the construction of a beneficial risk compensation mechanism, reasonable adjustment of production capacity and price, and avoid sustained fluctuations in egg prices.