Abstract: The effects of ambient temperature, driving load and driving speed on the permanent deformation of asphalt pavement were explored. The grey correlation method was used to determine the significance level of the influence of multiple factors of continuous temperature change conditions, pavement material deformation characteristics and construction quality on rutting deformation. According to the principle of equivalent rutting deformation, the equivalent temperature numerical simulation analysis was carried out, and the rutting deformation-temperature relationship model was obtained to determine the equivalent temperature of rutting deformation in different months. A finite element analysis method of long-term permanent deformation of asphalt pavement was established based on ABAQUS, which was used to analyze the variation law of actual rutting deformation of asphalt pavement with service time. The results show that the environmental temperature, the driving load and the driving speed all have great influence on the rutting deformation of asphalt pavement, and the decreasing influence sequence is the environmental temperature, the driving load and the driving speed. The numerical simulation analysis of equivalent temperature shows that the monthly equivalent temperature of rutting can effectively characterize the rutting deformation of the pavement. The established prediction model can effectively predict the permanent deformation of the asphalt pavement, which can provide reference for controlling the construction quality of the asphalt pavement and guiding the later maintenance of the pavement.