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江苏省现代农业物流系统动力学建模及优化

何美玲, 安勇峰, 蒲俊

何美玲, 安勇峰, 蒲俊. 江苏省现代农业物流系统动力学建模及优化[J]. 江苏大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 42(5): 562-568.
引用本文: 何美玲, 安勇峰, 蒲俊. 江苏省现代农业物流系统动力学建模及优化[J]. 江苏大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 42(5): 562-568.
HE Mei-ling, AN Yong-feng, PU Jun. Modeling and optimization of modern agricultural logistics system in Jiangsu province based on system dynamics[J]. Journal of Jiangsu University(Natural Science Edition), 2021, 42(5): 562-568.
Citation: HE Mei-ling, AN Yong-feng, PU Jun. Modeling and optimization of modern agricultural logistics system in Jiangsu province based on system dynamics[J]. Journal of Jiangsu University(Natural Science Edition), 2021, 42(5): 562-568.

江苏省现代农业物流系统动力学建模及优化

基金项目: 

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(16YJCZH027)

镇江市社科应用研究课题项目(2021YBL009)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    何美玲(1982—),女,江苏江都人,副教授(hemeiling@ujs.edu.cn),主要从事物流系统规划与优化等研究;安勇峰(1996—),男,新疆石河子人,硕士研究生(AYFAYF@126.com),主要从事农产品物流资源整合研究

  • 中图分类号: F259.27;F326.6

Modeling and optimization of modern agricultural logistics system in Jiangsu province based on system dynamics

  • 摘要: 为了确定江苏省现代农业物流系统中农业物流需求、供给、农业生产产值和地区人口之间的相互作用关系,以及物流信息技术使用对农业物流系统产生的影响,对江苏省现代农业物流系统进行建模及优化.首先采用定性分析的方法,选取13个评价变量,根据各个变量之间的关系,利用Vensim PLE软件绘制因果关系图;其次采用定量分析的方法,在因果关系图的基础上绘制系统流图,并利用江苏省统计年鉴、中国交通运输发展公报和SPSS数据分析软件,建立各个变量的系统动力学方程;最后对模型进行检验以及仿真分析.结果表明,将物流信息技术投资比例分别增加1、2和3倍时,江苏省农业物流供给量平均提升2.25%、4.49%和6.73%,农业物流成本平均下降0.63%、1.22%和1.82%,这表明在农业物流活动中推广使用现代信息技术能够对整个物流系统产生积极影响.
    Abstract: To determine the interaction among agricultural logistics demand, logistics supply, agricultural GDP and regional population in the modern agricultural logistics system of Jiangsu province, and analyze the impact of logistics information technology on the agricultural logistics system, the model of modern agricultural logistics system was constructed and optimized. The method of qualitative analysis was used with 13 evaluation variables, and the Vensim PLE software was used to draw the cause and effect diagram according to the relationship between each variable. The method of quantitative analysis was used to draw the system flow diagram according to the cause and effect diagram, and the system dynamics equation of each variable was established by Jiangsu statistical yearbook, China transportation development bulletin and SPSS data analysis software. The model was checked and simulated. The results show that when the proportions of investment in logistics information technology are increased by one, two and three times, the agricultural logistics supply quantities in Jiangsu province are increased by respective 2.25%, 4.49% and 6.73% on average, while the costs of agricultural logistics are decreased by respective 0.63%, 1.22% and 1.82% on average. Using modern information technology in agricultural logistics activities can make a positive impact on the entire logistics system.
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    其他类型引用(17)

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-08-01
  • 刊出日期:  2021-09-09

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