Objective The objective is to explore the influences of topography and forest vegetation on the occurrence probability of overwintering Dendrolimus superans and clarify the relationship between these factors and the occurrence quantity of Dendrolimus superans, which will provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of the infestations of this pest.

Method Factors such as topography, forest vegetation, and the number of larvae of Dendrolimus superans were investigated in 142 plots (20 m × 20 m) of different forest types established in the main distribution area of Dendrolimus superans in the Great Xing’an Mountains. The binary logistic regression and the theory of quantificationⅠ were used to establish the models of the occurrence probability and quantity of Dendrolimus superans, respectively, and the performance of these models was evaluated.

Result The discriminant accuracy of the probability model was relatively high (AUC=0.826), the slope aspect and herb cover were the key factors affecting the occurrence probability of Dendrolimus superans, the occurrence probability of which was the lowest on shady slopes and was the highest on sunny slopes. The occurrence probability increased with the increase of herb cover. There were significant differences in the number of Dendrolimus superans in the stands with different slope aspects, levels of slope gradients, slope positions, altitudes, herb coverage, and stand density (P<0.05). The model of quantification established by the five factors of slope aspect, levels of slope gradient, slope position, canopy cover, and stand density had little difference in fitting degree from the model established by the full factors. The coefficient of determination (R²) of them was 0.635 and 0.685, respectively, and their root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.964 and 0.936, respectively. The model of quantification showed that the occurrence quantity of Dendrolimus superans was the least on the shady slope and the most on the sunny slope. As the levels of slope gradient increased, its occurrence quantity would decrease. The occurrence quantity of Dendrolimus superans was the most on the ridges. Similarly, with the increase of canopy cover, or the decrease of stand density, the occurrence quantity of Dendrolimus superans would increase accordingly.

Conclusion The study revealed that Dendrolimus superans were prone to occur on sunny slopes, flat slopes, and ridges, which should be the focus of prevention and control, which forest management practices such as replanting, thinning and regular weeding could help restrain the population growth.