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全球森林火灾风险与蔓延预测:系统,模型及关键技术概述

Global Forest Fire Risk and Spread Prediction: A Review of Systems, Models, and Key Technologies

  • 摘要: 森林火灾严重威胁全球生态系统、经济以及人类安全,准确预测火灾风险和火灾蔓延对有效预防、减灾、资源调配及应急响应至关重要。本文按照数据-模型-关键趋势的顺序,全面总结了国内外常用于森林火灾风险以及蔓延预测的各类数据、系统、模型以及实践。在实践中,全球火灾预测体系正沿着从地区、国家向全球化的路径发展,并呈现出多源数据融合日益深化、国际合作不断加强的趋势。本文重点探讨了卫星遥感在火点探测与燃料制图中的核心作用,并深入分析了人工智能(AI)与机器学习(ML)在整合异构数据、识别复杂模式及提升预测精度方面的应用潜力与挑战。最后,本文总结了当前在数据、模型和体系层面面临的挑战,并展望了多源数据融合、物理信息机器学习(PIML)等未来发展方向,旨在为中国构建高效、智能的森林火灾风险与蔓延预测体系提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Forest fires are a serious threat to global ecosystems, economies, and human safety. Predicting fire risk and spread with accuracy is therefore essential for effective prevention, mitigation, resource allocation, and emergency response. Following a data-model-key trend sequence, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the data sources, systems, and models commonly used for forest fire risk and spread prediction. In practice, global fire prediction systems are evolving along a path from regional and national to global scales, while also exhibiting trends of deepening multi-source data fusion and strengthening international cooperation. The paper highlights the core role of satellite remote sensing in active fire detection and fuel mapping, and provides an in-depth analysis of the potential and challenges of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in integrating heterogeneous data, identifying complex patterns, and enhancing predictive accuracy. The final section of this paper summarizes current challenges at the data, model, and systemic levels and discusses future directions, including multi-source data fusion and Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML), aiming to offer a reference framework for the development of efficient and intelligent forest fire risk and spread prediction system in China.

     

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