Objective To reveal the response of suitable distribution of Prunus pedunculata to climate change.

Method Based on the field investigation, MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict the change of suitable distribution area of Prunus pedunculata in the future climate scenario.

ResultsThe suitable distribution region of Prunus pedunculata was mainly concentrated in China, Mongolia and Russia, and the distribution area located in 97.23°-122.62° E and 35.49°-54.91° N. Under the reference climate (1970−2000) scenario, the medium and high suitable distribution area are mainly located in China. Seasonality Precipitation (bio15, Coefficient of Variation) was the climate variable with the highest score in the prediction process. Under the four future (2021−2100) climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) , the geometric center of the suitable distribution area would move to the northwest. In the scenario of increased emissions, the average migration rate of geometric centers increased.

Conclusion Seasonality Precipitation (bio15) is the most critical variable to limit the distribution of Prunus pedunculata. The suitable distribution area of Prunus pedunculata trends to migrate to the northwest. Under the high emission scenario, the change of the suitable distribution region is more active than the low emission scenario.