Abstract: Based on China's nationwide poplar canker disease data from 2002 to 2012, and taking the prefecture-level average incidence rate of poplar canker as a prediction indicator, the meteorological data in these prefectures was calculated by ClimateChina v4.40, a climate simulation software. By means of partial least squares regression, the regression equation about the average incidence rate and meteorological factor, i.e. the spatial pattern model of poplar canker average incidence rate, was established, and combined with geo-spatial data and attribute data, the potential trend of poplar canker was predicted. The results show that the spatial pattern model built with 12 meteorological factors has high reliability. Based on the model, it is estimated that compared with the data of 2002—2012, the spatial pattern of average incidence of poplar canker in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s will decrease in area but more severely in some area of North China, Central China and East China. In addition, the disease will cause more serious damage and will move northward in Northeast China.