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杨小舟蛾短期预测预报研究

Study on Shortern Forecast of Micromelopha troglodyta

  • 摘要: 杨小舟蛾(Micromelo phatroglodyta Graeser)是吉林省西部杨树(Populus spp.)主要食叶害虫,曾于1987~1988年和1997年在长岭、乾安、双辽、扶余等县(市)大面积发生,危害猖獗,在短期内将树叶全部吃光,造成了很大的经济损失。该虫种群增殖很快,极易在短期内暴发成灾,因此对杨小舟蛾预测预报的研究,不论在理论上还是在生产应用上都具有十分重要的意义。

     

    Abstract: This paper deals with the bionomics of Micromelopha troglodyta.The pest has 2 generations a year and overwinters in pupa in the fallen leaves.In the food lack condition,the last instar larvae is compelled to pupate in advance,themass of the pupa ismuch lighter than that of normal pupa.If themass of the pupa is below 90mg,it can not emerge.Themathematicalmodel between the probability of the female and the pupamass is Yi =-6.22+3.256 log Xi.Themathematicalmodel between amount of the female eggs and the pupamass is Yi′=-1 886.3+1 014.4 log Xi.Applying thesemathematicalmodels,we can forecast the population dynamics ofm.troglodyta.

     

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