Objective To study the forest fire risk assessment based on the burn probability, fire behavior, and potential fire impact.

Method The Burn-P3 model was used to simulate the burn probability, potentialfire intensity, fire spread, and fire type in the Jiulongshan Forest Farm. The fire impact was calculated from ecology importance, vulnerability, and protection level of each forest stand. The exposure indicated the impacts of fire on urban and water resources. The forest fire risk assessment system on forest farm scale was established by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Result The results showed that the average burn probability was 0.0351 for the forest stand area, and the areas with high and very high burn probability accounted for 10.3% and 6.0%, respectively. The fire types are surface fire and intermitted crown fire. The average fire intensity and rate of spread were 2140.9 kW/m² and 3.7 m/min, respectively. The areas with high and very high fire behavior index accounted for 17.8% and 14.0%, respectively.

Conclusion The ecological value and potential fire impact of the forests are relative high and the fire risk assessment will be helpful to enhance the fire management. The fire risk assessment shows that the areas with high and very high fire danger rating account for 31.8%. The deciduous coniferous forest and mixed forest in west, north, and south parts of the farm show the higher fire risk, fire management activities should be strengthened for the purpose of risk mitigation.