Abstract: Based on Helianthus annuus yield and meteorological data during flowering-maturity period in Hetao Irrigation District（Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region）from 2013 to 2023, a five-point quadratic smoothing method was used to separate trend yield from meteorological yield．Helianthus annuus yield forecasting model was constructed by combining decadal correlation analysis with ridge regression method．Results showed that from 2013 to 2023, average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and average relative humidity during flowering-maturity period of Helianthus annuus in Hetao Irrigation District exhibited an upward trend, while cumulative sunshine hours showed a downward trend, and cumulative precipitation change trend was insignificant．Period from September 1st to 10th was critical for yield determination．During this phase, average temperature, average maximum temperature, and average minimum temperature showed significantly positive correlations with meteorological yield, while average relative humidity was significantly negatively correlated．A ridge regression meteorological yield model was established．After integrating trend yield equation, model achieved an average accuracy rate of 94.5% in returned validation．