基于SPEI_Kc的华北平原小麦玉米周年干旱特征分析

马雪晴; 胡琦; 王靖; 潘学标; 张君; 王晓晨; 胡莉婷; 和骅芸; 李蓉; 邢梦媛

doi:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.21.020

基于SPEI_Kc的华北平原小麦玉米周年干旱特征分析

1.
中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193
2.
内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院，呼和浩特 010031

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2017YFD0300404、2016YFD0300304、2017YFD0300105）

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-07-26
- 修回日期: 2020-10-09
- 发布日期: 2020-10-31

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought trend at annual of wheat-maize in the North China Plain based on SPEI_Kc index

1.
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2.
Inner Mongolia Academy of Agricultural & Animal Husbandry Sciences, Hohhot 010031, China

摘要

摘要: 华北平原是中国重要的冬小麦和夏玉米（麦玉）生产基地，同时也是水资源紧缺的区域，农业生产极易受到干旱的影响。该研究在标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index，SPEI）的基础上，引进作物系数（KC）改进SPEI指数，并基于改进后的SPEI_KC指数从作物生长季尺度、关键生育期尺度以及麦玉周年尺度分析1961—2017年华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米周年干旱的时空分布和变化特征。结果表明：1）SPEI_KC指数在华北平原麦玉周年干旱评估中的适用性优于SPEI_TW指数（采用Thornthwaite公式计算的SPEI指数）和SPEI_PM指数（采用Penma-Monteith公式计算的SPEI指数）：在（实际）有旱（指数）评估为有旱情况下，SPEI_KC指数在代表气象站点的平均准确率为76.13%，较SPEI_TW指数、SPEI_PM指数均有提高；在无旱评估为无旱情况下，SPEI_KC指数准确率为85.67%，较SPEI_TW指数、SPEI_PM指数分别均有提高。2）小麦关键生育期和小麦生长季的空间分布均呈轻旱在河北北部较高，重旱在研究区中部较高分布，玉米关键生育期和玉米生长季干旱频率的空间分布均呈中旱在河北北部较高，重旱在山东西部较高分布。总体来说，研究区的东南部干旱频率小于西北部，山东半岛地区和河北中部旱情较轻，河南省干旱严重。3）年代际干旱程度总体呈略微减小的趋势，具体表现为大部分研究尺度的轻旱发生频率增加，所有研究尺度的中旱和重旱发生频率减小；小麦关键生育期、小麦生长季以及玉米生长季的干旱频率减小，玉米关键生育期和麦玉周年尺度干旱频率增加。研究结果能够为正确认识气候变化背景下该地区干旱分布和变化，进而采取合理措施应对气候变化提供理论依据。
- 干旱 /
- 作物 /
- 降雨 /
- SPEI /
- 作物系数 /
- 华北平原 /
- 麦玉生长季
Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP) is an important wheat-maize production region in China with limited water resource. Drought is one of major agro-meteorological disasters for the local agricultural production. This study introduced crop coefficient Kc into calculation of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to analyze drought condition. The method was compared with the two methods including SPEI based on Thornthwaite (SPEI_TW) and Penman-Monteith (SPEI_PM). Multi-year meteorological data in the North China Plain were obtained. The applicability of these three SPEI indexes in the annual drought assessment of wheat-maize was assessed based on historical disaster data. The spatial and temporal distributions and variations of annual drought during both winter wheat and summer maize growth season from 1961 to 2017 were analyzed. To understand the effect of climate change on wheat-maize, the study further analyzed the results at the key growth period scale and the annual scale. The results showed that SPEI_KC could be a better index than SPEI_TW and SPEI_PM to evaluate crop drought. Compared with the observed actual disaster data, SPEI_KC had the best applicability to assess annual scale of wheat-maize drought among the SPEI_TW index and SPEI_PM index in the North China Plain. For the condition with right evaluation when the drought was present, the average accuracy of SPEI_Kc index in representing meteorological stations was up to 76.13%, which was 11.11 and 5.55 percent points higher than SPEI_TW index and SPEI_PM index, respectively. For the condition with right evaluation when the drought was not found, the accuracy of SPEI_KC index was 85.67%, which was 1.36 and 0.13 percent point higher than SPEI_TW index and SPEI_PM index, respectively. Spatial distribution of drought during the key growing period and the growth season of wheat and maize showed highly similar rules: light drought frequency at the key growing period and the growth season of wheat was high in the north of Heibei Province and serve drought frequency was high in the North China Plain; moderate drought frequency at the key growing period and the growth season of wheat was high in the north of Heibei Province. The drought intensity was strong in the northwest of the North China, weak in the southeast, mainly in the Henan. The average frequency of light drought was higher than 33.08%, the frequency of moderate drought was 10.08%, the average frequency of severe drought was higher than 6.14%. The drought frequency in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend. The frequency of light drought increased at majority timescale and moderate drought and severe drought decreased at all of time scale. Moreover, the drought frequency decreased during the key growing period of wheat and the growing season of wheat and maize, and increased during the key growing period of maize and wheat-maize rotation. Our study revealed the temporal and spatial variation and the characteristics and causes of meteorological drought in North China Plain, and provided reasonable measures to deal with climate change.
- drought /
- crops /
- precipitation /
- SPEI /
- crop coefficient /
- the North China Plain /
- wheat-maize growing season

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