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窟野河流域生长季气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖的影响

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover during the growing season in the Kuye River Basin

  • 摘要: 为探讨窟野河流域气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖变化的影响,该研究基于归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)、气候因素和土地利用类型数据,采用趋势分析、残差分析与情景模拟评估等方法分析植被覆盖时空演变规律,剥离气候因素和人为干扰对植被覆盖的影响组分,探讨两种组分在植被动态演变过程的定量贡献,进而阐述气候变化与人类活动对植被覆盖的驱动作用。研究结果表明,2000—2022年窟野河流域多年平均植NDVI自北向南逐渐递增,NDVI呈波动上升趋势,增速为0.008/a,耕地植被覆盖改善状况最好,建设用地植被覆盖恢复效果最差;气候变化和人类活动对窟野河流域植被覆盖的影响正、负效应并存,尤以人类活动的正向推动作用更甚;不同植被类型NDVI均以极显著(P < 0.05)增加趋势为主;水域和建设用地植被覆盖受负面影响最大,但以不显著(P > 0.05)减少趋势为主;在植被覆盖向好发展区域,人类干预贡献占比为98.78%,气候变化归因权重仅占1.22%;在植被覆盖逐渐恶化区域,人类干预贡献占比为95.31%,气候变化归因权重仅占4.69%;未利用地和建设用地植被覆盖受气候影响相对较大。研究结果期望能为窟野河流域生态环境改善、植被恢复与政府管理及生态保护提供有益参考。

     

    Abstract: The Kuye River Basin is located in the Loess Plateau region and the N-shaped bend region of the Yellow River. It is not only an important economic development area, but also an important component of the ecological barrier in the Yellow River Basin and the Loess Plateau. However, the study area is located in a semi-arid and arid region with loose soil structure, sparse vegetation cover and a fragile ecological environment, resulting in severe soil erosion. Therefore, changes in vegetation cover play a crucial role in the protection of water resources and the sustainable development of the economy and society in the Kuye River Basin. Against the backdrop of global climate change, the Kuye River Basin is experiencing intensified climate change and increased human activities. Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, significant changes are occurring in the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation cover in the study area. The effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover changes in the Kuye River Basin are investigated, this study used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), two climate factors including temperature and precipitation, and land use type data. The spatio-temporal evolution of vegetation cover was analysed by applying trend analysis, residual analysis and scenario simulation assessment. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity separation analysis of climate factors and human disturbances was carried out, the relative contribution rates of these two drivers to vegetation dynamics were quantified, and the synergistic/antagonistic mechanisms between climate variability and human activities on vegetation cover were systematically investigated. The research results show that from 2000 to 2022, there has been a significant recovery of vegetation cover in the Kuye River Basin. The average vegetation NDVI has gradually increased from north to south, showing a fluctuating upward trend with a growth rate of 0.008/a. The improvement of vegetation cover on cropland is the most significant, while the recovery of vegetation cover on construction land is the least effective. Vegetation cover in the Kuye River Basin is influenced by both climate change and human activities, with both positive and negative effects observed. A dominant positive influence is exerted by human activities, while the impact of climate change is not found to be significant.Different vegetation types show a significant increasing trend in vegetation NDVI, while water bodies and construction land have the greatest negative impact on vegetation cover, both showing a non-significant decreasing trend.he improvement and degradation of vegetation cover in the Kuye River Basin are affected differently by climate change and human activities. The decoupling study of driving factors in the vegetation restoration area shows that the attribution weight of climate change is only 1.22%, and the contribution proportion of human intervention is as high as 98.78%, while in the vegetation degradation area, the attribution weight of climate change is 4.69%, and the contribution proportion of human intervention is 95.31%. Unused land and built-up areas are relatively more affected by climate change. The research results are of great significance for monitoring changes in vegetation cover and studying land-atmosphere interactions. It is hoped that they will provide valuable references for ecological environment improvement, vegetation restoration, and government management and protection in the Kuye River basin.

     

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