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农村居民点与乡村人口互动关系的时空特征与驱动效应

Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors between rural settlements and population in Shanghai of China

  • 摘要: 随着城镇化推进,乡村人口持续减少,农村居民点用地面积却反向增长,集约利用农村居民点用地是缓解城乡建设用地双扩矛盾与助推乡村振兴发展的关键。为此,该研究以上海市为例,运用弹性系数模型、Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型对上海市农村居民点用地与乡村人口的互动特征及其驱动效应开展实证研究。结果表明:1)改革开放以来,上海市农村居民点整体呈现“人减地增”的非均衡态势,从农村宅基地无偿分配阶段、宅基地使用权自由流转阶段、宅基地有偿使用阶段到宅基地有条件流转阶段,农村人地互动关系依次经历了人增地增(1980—1990年)、人减地增(1990—2000年)、人减地增(2000—2010年)和人减地减(2010—2020年)等过程。2)上海市各区县农村居民点用地的人地互动关系具有较大的差异性和动态性。其中浦东新区、闵行区、嘉定区和宝山区这四个城乡结合区的“人减地增”非均衡趋势显著,农村居民点用地与乡村人口长期处于强负脱钩状态。3)农村土地利用刚性约束缺失导致居民点集约利用水平低下、城镇化和工业化发展引致农村居民点用地资产价值显化、农村新增人口产生新的居住需求,均造成了农村居民点的规模扩张;而城乡人口结构变迁则通过促进农村居住点用地转出,阻碍农村居民点用地规模的进一步扩张;各因素的驱动效应具有显著的空间异质性。研究结果对缓解农村人地互动矛盾、促进土地集约节约利用、实现乡村振兴和乡村可持续发展具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Rural housing land is ever-increasing with the advancement of urbanization in China, despite the rapid outflow of the rural population. Intensive use of rural settlements can also boost rural revitalization under the supply of urban construction land. Taking Shanghai City as an example, an empirical study was carried out to examine the spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of the interaction relationship between rural settlements and rural population. A series of models were combined, such as the elastic coefficient model, Tapio decoupling model, and LMDI decomposition. The results showed that: 1) There was a serious imbalance structure of “rural population decreasing and residential land increasing” since 1978. Rural settlements and population had also experienced the process of “increasing population and expanding residential land” (1980-1990), “decreasing population and expanding residential land” (1990-2000), “decreasing population and expanding residential land” (2000-2010), and “decreasing population and decreasing residential land” (2010-2020) from the free distribution stage, free circulation stage of the use right, the paid use stage, to the conditional circulation stage of residential land. The human-land interaction structure in rural residential land varied from intense to gentle. While the socio-economic transformation promoted the expansion of rural residential land. The redevelopment of inefficient use of rural construction land was then promoted the intensive use of rural residential land. 2) There were disparate variations in the human-land interaction of rural residential land in the various districts. Specifically, four districts also presented a significant imbalance structure of “rural population decreasing and land increasing” (i.e., Pudong New Area, Minhang, Jiading, and Baoshan District). There was a strong negative decoupling state between rural settlements and population. These suburban districts shared the more developed informal land market, of which the rural residential land was no longer regarded as a self-occupied place. Their land scale was also expanding rapidly. 3) The dominant factors were determined for the expansion of rural settlements, such as the intensity of land use, urbanization, and regional total population. While the urban-rural population structure was the main hindrance factor. No rigid constraint of land use was attributed to the low level of the intensive use of rural residential land. Urbanization and industrialization also led to represent the housing asset value. The new population in the rural areas was then produced the new housing demand. All factors resulted in the scale expansion of rural residential land. The urban and rural population structure promoted the transfer of rural residential land, thus impeding the further expansion of rural settlements. The driving factors shared significant spatial heterogeneity. An approval system was required for the rural housing construction in the study areas. Strict regulations can be released to restrict the area standards for the free use of homestead land. In addition, the appropriate economic tools (such as taxes and penalties) can also be considered to control the unapproved and unorganized expansion of rural settlements. These findings are of great significance to alleviate the contradiction between human-land interaction, in order to promote the efficient utilization of rural land resources in sustainable agriculture.

     

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