Abstract: As a traditional agricultural production area, the Yangtze River Delta region holds an important strategic position in the overall pattern of national agricultural development. Studying the impact of water and soil resource matching on agricultural carbon emissions and revealing the mechanism of water and soil resource matching on agricultural carbon emissions is of great significance for optimizing water and soil resource allocation, achieving efficient utilization of water and soil resources, and promoting low-carbon agricultural development. Based on the carbon emission coefficient method and the water soil resource matching degree model, the agricultural carbon emissions and water soil resource matching degree in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2022 were calculated. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the water soil resource matching status and agricultural carbon emissions were studied, and a two-way fixed effects panel model was constructed to analyze the impact of water soil resource matching on agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that: 1) The matching degree of water and soil resources exhibited a distribution characteristic of “high in the south and low in the north”, and the spatial distribution of regional agglomeration types remained relatively stable during the study period. The high-high (HH) agglomeration areas were situated within the southern parts of Zhejiang, while the low-low (LL) agglomeration areas were predominantly located in the northern sections of the Yangtze River Delta; 2) The distribution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions was “high in the north and low in the south”, with high-high (HH) agglomeration areas predominantly located in northern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu, and central Anhui Province, belonging to the core area of high-intensity agglomeration of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region. Low-low (LL) agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in northern Zhejiang and southern Anhui; 3) The results of the two-way fixed effects panel model showed that the matching status of water and soil resources, the level of agricultural mechanization, and the scale of agricultural production had a significant promoting effect on agricultural carbon emissions. The agricultural economic structure had a promoting effect on agricultural carbon emissions, but it is not obvious. The level of agricultural economic development, urbanization, and environmental regulation had a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions. This conclusion still stable under robustness tests such as variable replacement, exclusion of municipalities, and adjustment of research periods. Heterogeneity analysis also found that the matching status of water and soil resources had different impacts on agricultural carbon emissions in cities of different sizes. The research results can provide scientific basis for the government to formulate differentiated low-carbon agricultural development strategies, improve the development methods and utilization intensity of water and soil resources, and achieve coordinated development of low-carbon agriculture and protective development of water and soil resources., In the future, we should comprehensively examine the coordinated development and utilization of water, soil, energy, carbon, and other factors based on the matching status of water and soil resources in different regions and the current situation of agricultural carbon emissions.