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基于水资源总量约束的黑河中游大满灌区水资源优化配置

Optimal allocation of water resources subject to the total consistents in Daman Irrigation District in the middle reaches of the Heihe River in China

  • 摘要: 为解决黑河中游大满灌区水资源分配不合理,地下水超采等问题,该研究根据灌区实际情况预测了不同规划年(2026、2030年)灌区的需水量,提出了一种包含成本效益、缺水风险和磷污染控制的多目标水资源配置模型,采用自适应的非支配排序遗传算法(adaptive nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅲ,A-NSGA-Ⅲ)对模型进行求解,建立水资源配置方案评价体系,通过客观赋权法(criteria importance through intercriteria correlation,CRITIC)-优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)法对不同配置方案进行优选。结果表明:大满灌区2026年和2030年规划的供水量指标较预测的最大需水量分别缺水约1383.97 万和332.93 万m3,水资源供需矛盾突出;经优化配置后,2026年和2030年灌区用水总量分别是21043 万和21459.17 万m3,均满足灌区规划年供水总量指标约束;相较2021年,配置方案中不同规划年地表水使用量分别增加约3171.95 万和4943.59 万m3,地下水开采量减少约6301.48 万和7656.95 万m3,较大程度地减少了灌区地下水的开采。该研究提出的多目标水资源优化配置模型在大满灌区有较好的可行性与适用性,水资源优化配置方案符合实际,可为黑河中游其他灌区的水资源优化配置提供理论支撑和参考依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problems of water wastage, low utilization of surface water and over-exploitation of groundwater in Daman Irrigation District in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, the study predicted the water demand of the irrigation district in different planning years (2026 and 2030) according to the actual situation of the irrigation district using the grey prediction model with the water use quota method and put forward a multi-objective water resource allocation model including cost-effectiveness, water shortage risk and phosphorus pollution control, and adopted A-NSGA-Ⅲ (adaptive nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅲ) algorithm to solve the model and establish an evaluation system of water resource allocation schemes. algorithm to solve the model, establish an evaluation system of water resources allocation schemes, and optimize different allocation schemes by CRITIC (criteria importance through intercriteria correlation) - TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) method. The results show that: the planned water delivery metric of Daman Irrigation District in 2026 and 2030 are about 13839700 m3 and 3329300 m3 short of the predicted maximum water demand, of which 26662800 m3 and 2633900 m3 are short of surface water, respectively, and the groundwater can satisfy the demand in 2026, and there is a shortfall of 695400 m3 in 2030, which is a prominent contradiction between the water supply and demand; after the optimal allocation, an evaluation system of different water resources allocation schemes is established, and the different allocation schemes are preferred by CRITIC-TOPSIS method. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent; after optimized allocation, the total water consumption of the irrigation area in 2026 is 210430000 m3, of which 146740000 m3 is used for surface water, 636900 m3 is used for groundwater, and 100000 m3 is left over; in 2030, the total water consumption of the irrigation area is 214591700 m3, of which 164456400 m3 is used for surface water, 50135300 m3 is used for groundwater, and the remaining water is 6018300 m3. The two programs meet the constraints of the total annual water supply index of the irrigation planning. In 2021, the total water resources used in Daman Irrigation District will be 241725300 m3, of which the surface water use will be 115020500 m3, and the groundwater use will be 126704800 m3. Compared with the year 2021, the surface water use in different planning years of the allocation program will increase by about 31719500 and 49435900 m3, respectively, and the amount of groundwater exploitation will decrease by about 63014800 and 76569500 m3, and the proportion of groundwater use is reduced by 22.15 % and 29.06 %, respectively, which reduces the exploitation of groundwater in the irrigation area to a larger extent. The multi-objective water resources optimization model proposed in this study has good feasibility and applicability in Daman irrigation district, and the water resources optimization scheme is in line with the reality, which can provide theoretical support and reference basis for water resources optimization in other irrigation areas in the middle reaches of Heihe River.

     

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