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WGDWS生成气象数据模拟北方冬小麦生长效果评价

Evaluation on the effect of meteorological data generated by WGDWS to simulate the growth of Northern winter wheat

  • 摘要: 作物生长模型可以预测从站点到区域级别不同尺度的作物生长和发育,需要逐日天气数据来驱动作物生长,随机天气发生器(weather stochastic simulator,SWG)可以满足这一需求。课题组根据中国气候特点构建了基于干湿期的随机天气发生器(weather generator based on dry and wet spells,WGDWS),并复现了应用广泛的WGEN(weather generator)类天气发生器(daily weather stochastic simulator,DWSS)。为了评估WGDWS和DWSS生成气象数据作为小麦生长模型输入的适用性,该研究利用中国北方冬麦区8个站点实测57 a逐日气象数据,通过WGDWS和DWSS分别生成300a逐日气象数据,分析两类发生器生成气象要素统计值的质量。结果表明:除山西太原站点外,两类发生器生成的月均最高温、最低温与实测值达到非常好的一致性,太阳总辐射月均值一致性较好,虽然与实测值有一定偏差,但两类发生器生成气象要素月均值与实测值之间均未达到显著性差异。采用作物模型小麦智能决策系统,分别以实测和两类发生器生成数据作为天气输入,评价两种生产管理方式对小麦生长模拟结果的影响。结果表明,WGDWS和DWSS生成数据对小麦产量和生物量均值模拟效果较好,与实测数据模拟值的决定系数分别达到0.94和0.99。总体而言两类发生器对生物量的模拟效果优于产量,模拟生物量的年际变化也小于产量。WGDWS和DWSS对积温、蒸散量和生物量积累的模拟变化趋势高度一致,与实测数据模拟值均未达到差异显著性。两类发生器相比较,除生物量以外,WGDWS模拟生理指标的平均相对误差(mean relative error,MRE)和均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)均小于DWSS,WGDWS模拟产量、生物量5%误差以内占比分别比DWSS高6%和25%。进一步分析两种管理方式下WGDWS和DWSS对产量、生物量、物候期等指标的模拟结果,绝对误差和标准差WGDWS优于DWSS的组数分别为63租和57组(总组数均为88组)。两种管理方式下,有14个指标两类发生器之间有显著性差异,其中13个指标WGDWS显著优于DWSS,说明WGDWS比DWSS具有更好的模拟效果。因此WGDWS生成的气象数据完全可用于作物生长模型的天气输入,并且对产量、生物量等指标的模拟性能要优于DWSS。

     

    Abstract: Crop growth models can predict crop growth and development at different scales from the station to the regional level, requiring daily weather data to drive crop growth. The Weather Stochastic Simulator (SWG) can meet this demand. The research team constructed a random weather generator based on the characteristics of China's climate (Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells, WGDWS), and replicated the widely used WGEN series (Weather Generator) weather generator (Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator, Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator DWSS). In order to evaluate the applicability of meteorological data generated by WGDWS and DWSS as inputs for wheat growth models, this paper uses 57a of daily meteorological data measured at 8 stations in the northern winter wheat region of China, and generates 300a of daily meteorological data through WGDWS and DWSS, respectively. The quality of meteorological element statistical values generated by the two types of generators is analyzed. Except for the Taiyuan station in Shanxi, the monthly average highest and lowest temperatures generated by the two types of generators have achieved very good consistency with the measured values. The monthly average of total solar radiation generated by the two types of generators has good consistency and both have certain deviations from the measured values. Both overestimation and underestimation of monthly average rainfall exist. However, there was no significant difference between the monthly mean values of meteorological elements generated by the two types of generators and the measured values. A crop model Wheat Intelligent Decision-making System was used to evaluate the impact of measured and generated data on wheat growth simulation results under two management methods (potential production and experience water and fertilizer). The results showed that the mean wheat yield and biomass simulated by WGDWS and DWSS were slightly overestimated, and the simulation effect was good, with determination coefficients of 0.94 and 0.99 compared to the measured values, respectively. In terms of standard deviation for simulated yield and biomass, WGDWS has 13% and 44% lower than the measured weather by more than 20%. For DWSS, these values are 6% and 25%, respectively. In cases where the standard deviation is more than 10% lower than the actual measurement, WGDWS accounts for 50% and 63% respectively, while DWSS accounts for 31% and 56% respectively. Overall, the simulation effect of the two types of generators on biomass is better than that on yield, and the interannual variation of simulated biomass is also smaller than that of simulated yield. The simulation trends of WGDWS and DWSS for accumulated temperature, evapotranspiration, and dry matter accumulation are highly consistent. The simulation differences for accumulated evapotranspiration are slightly greater than those for accumulated temperature and dry matter, and they do not show significant differences from the measured values. There is no significant difference in the simulation results of yield and biomass mean between the two types of generators generating weather and measured weather. Therefore, the weather data generated by the two types of generators can be used instead of measured weather for wheat growth simulation. The mean relative error (MRE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of physiological indicators simulated by WGDWS are smaller than those of DWSS, except for dry matter weight. Compared with DWSS, the differences in yield and biomass simulated by WGDWS almost do not exceed 10%, with errors within 10% accounting for 94% and 100%, respectively. WGDWS has a 6% and 25% higher simulated yield and biomass with an error of less than 5%. The simulation results of yield, biomass, phenological period and other indicators using WGDWS and DWSS under two management methods were further analyzed. Results showed that among the 88 sets of data, the absolute error and standard deviation of WGDWS were 63 sets and 57 sets, respectively, with WGDWS superior to DWSS. Under the two management methods, there are 14 indicators with significant differences between the two types of generators. Among them, 13 indicators WGDWS is significantly better than DWSS, indicating that WGDWS has better simulation effect than DWSS. Therefore, the meteorological data generated by WGDWS can be fully used as input for crop growth models, and the simulation error for indicators such as yield and biomass is better than that of DWSS.

     

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