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渭河流域主要作物对干旱胁迫的响应及关键期水分阈值

Response of major crops in the Weihe River Basin of China to drought stress and critical period water threshold

  • 摘要: 干旱是造成干旱区农业减产的一个重要因素。为探究农业产量在干旱胁迫下的损失特性,该研究以渭河流域的泾惠渠灌区为研究区域,选择区域内主要农作物(夏玉米与冬小麦)为研究对象,以各农作物模拟产量与统计产量差值最小为目标对AquaCrop-OSPy模型的敏感性参数进行率定;采用率定好的模型模拟2种农作物在不同干旱胁迫场景下的产量;采用“S”型增长曲线拟合缺水率与减产率的变化关系,同时使用方差分析方法量化不同月份缺水率对农作物减产率的影响。结果表明:当缺水率较小或较大时,减产率受限于供水总量,此时通过优化灌溉过程缩小减产率的效果不佳;“S”型曲线能够有效表示农业产量受旱胁迫时呈三阶段、多拐点的响应特征;当夏玉米与冬小麦生育期总缺水率分别为23%、25%时,两农作物的减产率开始增加,缺水率分别为32%、35%时,减产率增加速度达到最大,缺水率分别为41%、45%时,减产率趋于极值;6月与11月的缺水率分别对夏玉米和冬小麦的影响最大,且当6月与11月缺水率大于75%时,农作物的减产率趋于极大值的可能性变大。研究为揭示干旱胁迫下农作物产量响应规律,优化农业抗旱减灾策略提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Drought is one of the key factors to constrain the stability of the agricultural yield. The loss of crop yield can also influence food security. Therefore, it is particularly important to determine the yield loss under drought stress. This study aims to explore the yield response of its main crops (summer maize and winter wheat) to drought stress. The research area was selected as the drought-prone Jinghui Canal Irrigation District in the Weihe River Basin. Firstly, the one-factor-at-a-time approach was used to screen out the parameters with higher sensitivity in the AquaCrop-OSPy model. Subsequently, the sensitive parameters were used as the decision variables in order to minimize the difference between simulated and statistical yields for each crop. The particle swarm algorithm was used to calibrate the sensitive parameters of the AquaCrop-OSPy model. Then, the calibrated model was used to simulate the yield and irrigation process of two crops under ideal meteorological conditions without drought stress. After that, the Latin Hypercube Sampling was employed to randomly generate multiple sets of the irrigation discount coefficients within the interval 0,1. These coefficients were then used to proportionally scale the drought-free irrigation. Thereby, the irrigation scenarios were constructed with the varying levels of drought stress. The crop yield response was also simulated under each scenario. Finally, an S-shaped growth curve was fitted to the relationship between water deficit and yield reduction. An analysis of variance was applied to quantify the monthly variations in the water deficit effects on the crop yield. The results showed that the high value was found in the relative sensitivities of the maximum canopy cover (CCx), crop coefficients after canopy formation and before senescence (Kcb), normalized water productivity (WP), the reference harvest index (HI0), and base temperature (Tbase). The relative errors between the simulated and statistical yields of the summer maize and winter wheat in the calibration and validation periods were calculated to be within reasonable ranges, with the root mean squared error of 0.34 and 0.56 t/hm2, and the normalized root mean square error of 4.91% and 8.82%, respectively. The calibration was qualified to verify the model. The CCx, Kcb, WP, HI0, and Tbase of the summer maize were 0.99, 0.87, 30, 0.3, and 5, respectively, while those of winter wheat were 0.7, 1.2, 18.97, 0.5, and 0.13, respectively. The simulation analysis showed that the S-shaped curve effectively represented the response characteristics of the agricultural yields to the drought stress in three stages and multiple inflection points. When the total water deficit rates during the reproductive period of summer maize and winter wheat were 23% and 25%, respectively, the yield reduction rates of the two crops began to increase; When the water deficit rates were 32% and 35%, respectively, the increase rates of yield reduction reached the maximum; And when the water deficit rates were 41% and 45%, respectively, the yield reduction rates tended to the extreme value. In terms of the individual months, the water shortage rates in June and November had the most significant effects on the summer maize and winter wheat, respectively. Once the water shortage rates in June and November were greater than 75%, there was an extremely high possibility in the yield reduction rates of the two crops. The most significant cumulative effect of the water shortage rate in June and July was on the yield reduction rate of summer maize, whereas November and April were on the winter wheat. Therefore, there was a nonlinear response of the crop yield to the drought stress. The key water-sensitive period was quantified to provide the theoretical support for the dynamic water allocation and precise drought in irrigation areas.

     

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