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基于熵权法与网格搜索优化的水稻延迟型冷害指标构建

Delayed‐type chilling injury index for rice using entropy weight method and grid search optimisation

  • 摘要: 鉴于传统指标难以有效捕捉短期低温的累积效应及准确刻画冷害的动态演变过程,该研究提出了一种结合数据驱动方法与超参数调优的水稻延迟型低温冷害评价指标。基于热量指数和30年滚动平均值动态计算逐日距平值,以累积负距平值和负距平最长连续日数为核心变量,采用熵权法构建低温综合强度指数,并通过粗细粒网格搜索优化冷害等级的划分阈值,进一步分析冷害发生频率的时空变化。结果表明:该指标在冷害等级划分中与历史灾情记录完全一致的准确率为80.77%;重度冷害集中于黑龙江北部和吉林东部,1960—2010S水稻冷害发生频率整体呈下降趋势,1970S为冷害高发期,尽管重度冷害发生明显减少,但部分年份和区域仍存在集中爆发的可能,极端冷害潜在风险不可忽视。该指标对低温冷害发生、强度和持续时间的识别具有更高的敏感性,为低温冷害的精准评估及东北三省的水稻生产提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Chilling injury, a major meteorological hazard, remarkably constrains the stable and high‐yield production of rice and thus directly affects the resilience of regional agricultural systems.Although the overall frequency of chilling events has decreased as a consequence of global warming, the risk of extreme low‐temperature events has continued owing to an increase in climate variability in high‐latitude regions. Therefore, an accurate assessment of a chilling injury, especially the delayed type, is essential for ensuring the stability and sustainability of rice production, forming the basis for developing effective prevention and mitigation strategies. However, existing chilling injury indices are mostly limited by reliance on singular indicators, static baseline thresholds and homogeneous criteria for the classification of severity. To overcome these limitations, this study aimed to introduce an evaluation index for delayed‐type chilling injury in rice by integrating data‐driven techniques with hyperparameter optimisation to improve the accuracy and adaptability of assessments. This method dynamically calculates daily anomalies using heat indices and 30‐year moving averages. Using the cumulative negative anomaly and the maximum number of consecutive days having negative anomalies as key variables, the entropy weight method is employed to quantify the relative importance of each disaster‐inducing factor. Accordingly, a comprehensive cold intensity index (CCII) is constructed. To determine the criteria for classifying the severity of chilling injury, coarse‐ and fine‐grained grid search techniques are used along with cross‐validation. This method enables the precise classification of chilling injury severity by establishing differentiated grading thresholds, which were used to assess chilling events across the three northeastern provinces of China. Furthermore, this method was used for the spatiotemporal analysis of chilling injury frequency. The study results revealed that the CCII‐based classification agreed well with historical disaster records and achieved an accuracy rate of 80.77%. The index accurately identified representative years in which remarkable chilling injury occurred (i.e. 1969, 1992 and 2009), as well as years with negligible impact (e.g. 2007), and was consistent with historical documentation. The spatiotemporal analysis of chilling frequency revealed that severe chilling events were mainly concentrated in northern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin. From the 1960s to the 2010s, the overall frequency of rice chilling injury exhibited a declining trend, with the 1970s symbolised as the peak period. Although the frequency of severe chilling events has markedly decreased, localised outbreaks sometimes occur in certain regions, indicating that the potential risk of extreme chilling events remains critical. The delayed‐type chilling injury index developed in this study offers a precise and quantitative means for assessing the frequency, intensity and duration of low‐temperature damage to rice. This index overcomes the limitations of conventional indices and provides a robust new approach for accurately assessing chilling injury. Moreover, it offers scientific support for decision‐making about rice production across Northeast China.

     

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