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基于旗鱼算法优化BP神经网络的水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全特征测度分析

Measurement analysis of the security characteristics of the water-energy-food coupling system based on the BP neural network optimized by Sailfish algorithm

  • 摘要: 针对区域水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全状况难以精准量化问题,构建一种基于旗鱼优化算法改进的BP神经网络模型(sailfish optimization algorithm-back propagation neural network, SFO-BPNN),并将其应用于哈尔滨市2000—2022年WEF耦合系统安全特征测度分析中。采用基于主成分分析法-R聚类分析法-皮尔逊相关系数法-变异系数法的优选方法构建WEF耦合系统安全评价指标体系。深入分析耦合系统安全时间演变特征与关键驱动因子。结果表明:哈尔滨市WEF耦合系统安全指数在研究时段内呈现先波动变化,后大幅提升,最后趋于稳定的趋势。降水量、顷均机电井数目、人均粮食产量和农机总动力等为关键驱动因子。构建的SFO-BPNN模型与传统BP神经网络模型和基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型相比,平均绝对误差分别降低16.94%和3.36%、均方误差分别降低26.40%和16.93%、平均绝对百分比误差分别降低22.89%和2.66%、单次运行时间分别降低31.6%和30.5%、决定系数分别升高0.98%和0.15%,说明SFO-BPNN模型无论从精度还是效率方面都更具优势。研究结果可为水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全特征测度分析提供新模型,同时可为有效防控和降低区域安全风险提供参考。

     

    Abstract: This study aims to accurately quantify the security status of regional water-energy-food (WEF) coupling systems. A back propagation neural network model was improved by the sailfish optimization algorithm (SFO-BPNN). A systematic analysis was carried out to determine the security levels of the WEF coupling system in Harbin of Northeast China from 2000 to 2022. A security evaluation index system was established for the WEF coupling system. The parameters were then optimized to combine the amalgamated principal component analysis, R-cluster analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, and coefficient of variation (PCA-RCA-PCC-CV). This multi-faceted approach facilitated the precise relationships within the WEF coupling system. The temporal evolution was determined for the security of the coupling system. It was found that the security index of the WEF coupling system shared the unique trends from the historical data. Specifically, the index first decreased and then increased in the period from 2000 to 2002 and from 2010 to 2013, respectively. There was a decrease year by year from 2002 to 2004, whereas the index climbed sharply from 2004 to 2010. A stable upward trend was observed from 2013 to 2022. Among them, Bayan County shared the lowest average security index among the regions, indicating more weaknesses in its WEF coupling system. By contrast, the urban area had the highest average security index. A more stable and reliable system was then obtained in this area. The key driving factors were identified. Precipitation was then regarded as one of the key factors. Because the precipitation directly affected the availability of the water resources, there was a cascading effect on energy and food production. The number of mechanized wells per hectare was closely related to agricultural water extraction and potential energy applications. Per capita grain production was a significant indicator of food security in the WEF coupling system. The total power of agricultural machinery is dominated by both food production and energy consumption. Compared with the traditional back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) and their optimized by genetic algorithms (GA-BPNN), the mean absolute errors of the SFO-BPNN model decreased significantly by 16.94% and 3.36%, respectively. The mean squared error decreased by 26.40% and 16.93%, respectively, compared with the BPNN and GA-BPNN, while the mean absolute percentage error decreased by 22.89% and 2.66%, respectively. In addition, the single-run time of the SFO-BPNN model was significantly shortened by 31.6% and 30.5%, respectively, whereas, the coefficient of determination increased by 0.98% and 0.15%, respectively. The better performance of the SFO-BPNN model was achieved in the accuracy and efficiency. In summary, the findings can provide a highly efficient model for the security characteristics of the WEF coupling systems. The valuable ideas can also offer to effectively alleviate the regional security risks. A solid foundation can be gained for more scientific and reasonable resource decision-making on the WEF connection.

     

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