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中国西南地区骤旱时空特征及恢复概率评估

Assessing recovery probability from the spatiotemporal pattern of flash drought in Southwest China

  • 摘要: 全球气候变暖日益加剧,骤旱事件的发生频率和严重性呈上升趋势,目前不同区域骤旱的时空异质性特征和恢复概率仍不明确。该研究以中国西南地区为例,系统评估2000—2020年间所有骤旱事件的频率、强度、爆发阶段和恢复阶段历时的时空演变特征;基于条件Vine Copula模拟方法,选取骤旱恢复阶段历时(recovery time,RT)、强度(drought magnitude,DM)和恢复阶段的累积降水(recovery precipitation,RP)评估骤旱恢复的概率;并比较不同下垫面分区骤旱恢复概率的差异。结果表明,中国西南地区骤旱爆发阶段的历时呈显著增长趋势,年均增加速率为0.36 d/a,贵州省是骤旱发生的高频热点区。中国西南地区骤旱在春季和冬季的恢复概率偏低,特别是在RT为10~20 d时恢复概率较低,从空间上看,恢复概率低于20%的区域主要分布在贵州省内。不同地貌类型中岩溶槽谷的平均恢复概率最低,在不同地形坡度中,坡度为5°~15°的平均恢复概率最低,而在不同植被类型中耕作植被的平均恢复概率最低,岩溶槽谷、坡度为5°~15°、耕作植被在春季RT为10~20 d时平均恢复概率分别仅10%、18%、18%。中国西南地区骤旱发生和恢复存在显著的时空异质性,未来灾害应对应特别重视贵州省内的岩溶槽谷-缓坡-耕作植被区。

     

    Abstract: Flash droughts have posed a serious risk to human society and ecosystems in modern agriculture. Particularly, their frequency and severity have ever rising against global warming in recent years. However, it is still unclear on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the flash droughts in different regions, especially for their recovery probabilities. Therefore, this study aims to systematically explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the frequency, intensity, onset phase, and recovery phase duration of all flash droughts in Southwest China from 2000-2020. The recovery probability of the flash droughts was also assessed using the conditional Vine Copula simulation method. The recovery phase duration, intensity, and cumulative precipitation during the recovery phase were firstly selected as evaluation indicators of flash drought recovery probability; A comparison was then made on the probability of the recovery from flash drought in different underlying surface zones. The results showed that the duration of the onset phase shared a significant increasing trend, with an average annual increase rate of 0.36 d/a. The duration of the onset phase was lengthened to weaken the decline rate of the soil moisture percentile. The flash droughts mainly occurred in autumn and winter. Among them, Guizhou Province was the high-frequency hotspot of the flash droughts; The duration of the flash drought recovery phase was ≤30 d in 94.23% of the regions in Southwest China. In addition, the recovery probability of the flash droughts was low in spring and winter, especially in the recovery time (RT) for 10-20 d. In spatial pattern, the areas with a recovery probability lower than 20% were distributed mainly in Guizhou Province, while the recovery probability higher than 60% was observed in Yunnan Province and the western part of Guangxi Province, and the range of 40%-60% was in Guangxi Province. The significant differences were found in the recovery probability of the flash drought in different subdivisions of the underlying surface. The average recovery probability of Karst Trough Valley was the lowest among the landform types, with the lowest average recovery probability of 10% in the spring, when the RT was 10-20 d. Among the terrain slopes, the average recovery probability of the slopes with a gradient of 5°-15° was the lowest, with the lowest average recovery probability of 18% in the spring, when the RT was 10-20 d. In vegetation types, the cropland shared the lowest mean recovery probability, with the minimum of 18% at a spring RT of 10-20d. The flash drought events were associated with the specific seasonal or extreme environments. Although the flash droughts occurred over a relatively short period, the recovery was also required for the sufficient time and climatic conditions. Overall, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence and recovery of the flash droughts in Southwest China. Much attention should be paid on the high-frequency hotspots of the flash droughts and the areas with the lower recovery probability in the future. The finding can provide a strong reference to monitor the evolution and recovery probability of the flash droughts at the regional scale.

     

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