Abstract:
Flash droughts have posed a serious risk to human society and ecosystems in modern agriculture. Particularly, their frequency and severity have ever rising against global warming in recent years. However, it is still unclear on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the flash droughts in different regions, especially for their recovery probabilities. Therefore, this study aims to systematically explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the frequency, intensity, onset phase, and recovery phase duration of all flash droughts in Southwest China from 2000-2020. The recovery probability of the flash droughts was also assessed using the conditional Vine Copula simulation method. The recovery phase duration, intensity, and cumulative precipitation during the recovery phase were firstly selected as evaluation indicators of flash drought recovery probability; A comparison was then made on the probability of the recovery from flash drought in different underlying surface zones. The results showed that the duration of the onset phase shared a significant increasing trend, with an average annual increase rate of 0.36 d/a. The duration of the onset phase was lengthened to weaken the decline rate of the soil moisture percentile. The flash droughts mainly occurred in autumn and winter. Among them, Guizhou Province was the high-frequency hotspot of the flash droughts; The duration of the flash drought recovery phase was ≤30 d in 94.23% of the regions in Southwest China. In addition, the recovery probability of the flash droughts was low in spring and winter, especially in the recovery time (RT) for 10-20 d. In spatial pattern, the areas with a recovery probability lower than 20% were distributed mainly in Guizhou Province, while the recovery probability higher than 60% was observed in Yunnan Province and the western part of Guangxi Province, and the range of 40%-60% was in Guangxi Province. The significant differences were found in the recovery probability of the flash drought in different subdivisions of the underlying surface. The average recovery probability of Karst Trough Valley was the lowest among the landform types, with the lowest average recovery probability of 10% in the spring, when the RT was 10-20 d. Among the terrain slopes, the average recovery probability of the slopes with a gradient of 5°-15° was the lowest, with the lowest average recovery probability of 18% in the spring, when the RT was 10-20 d. In vegetation types, the cropland shared the lowest mean recovery probability, with the minimum of 18% at a spring RT of 10-20d. The flash drought events were associated with the specific seasonal or extreme environments. Although the flash droughts occurred over a relatively short period, the recovery was also required for the sufficient time and climatic conditions. Overall, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence and recovery of the flash droughts in Southwest China. Much attention should be paid on the high-frequency hotspots of the flash droughts and the areas with the lower recovery probability in the future. The finding can provide a strong reference to monitor the evolution and recovery probability of the flash droughts at the regional scale.