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京津冀城市群县域三生空间转化模式特征及稳定性分析

Characteristics and stability analysis of production-living-ecological space transformation model in counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

  • 摘要: 揭示三生空间演化特征对于实现区域可持续发展、优化空间资源配置具有重要意义。基于强度分析模型和马尔科夫链模型,从三生空间一、二级分类双重视角,依循“结构-格局-模式”分析维度,探讨2000-2020年京津冀城市群整体和县域尺度下的三生空间转化模式及稳定性特征。研究结果显示:1)在结构上,生产、生活、生态一级空间分别呈“缩减-扩增-波动较小”变化特征,二级空间的工矿生产、城镇生活、农村生活和蓝色生态空间呈增长态势,农业生产、灰色生态和绿色生态空间呈减少趋势;2)在空间格局上,生产空间由中部向外递减,生活空间中南部增加、东南部减少,生态空间呈以中东部为核心的散射状减少分布格局;3)在转化模式上,三生空间出现时空分异,农业生产空间向生活、生产空间,绿色生态空间向生产空间的转化模式呈倾向性特征。研究期间,县域农业生产空间转变由缓慢向剧烈发展,前期主要转向工矿生产和城镇生活空间,后期转向工矿生产和农村生活空间。绿色生态空间向农业生产和农村生活空间的转化趋势在后期更为显著;4)农业生产空间和绿色生态空间的转化模式较不稳定,生产、生活空间挤压农业生产空间,生态空间胁迫减缓,绿色生态空间向农村生活空间转化显著。研究可为京津冀城市群的国土空间分区调控措施制定提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Revealing the evolution characteristics of the production-living-ecological space was of great significance for achieving regional sustainable development and optimizing spatial resource allocation. This study, based on intensity analysis models and Markov chain models, explored the spatiotemporal changes and transformation pattern characteristics of the production-living-ecological space in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, both at the overall level and at the county scale, from 2000 to 2020. Based on the intensity analysis model, the study comprehensively measured the quantitative characteristics of spatial transition and its influencing degree, reflecting the tendencies and inhibitory states of the transformation patterns, and further clarified the transformation patterns of county-level agricultural production space and green ecological space. The study also revealed the stability characteristics of these transformation patterns and discussed their underlying influencing mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) In terms of structure, the primary space structure exhibited transformation characteristics of "significant reduction in production space - expansion of living space - minimal fluctuation in ecological space." The secondary space structure generally showed a trend of "four increases and three decreases," with the most significant reduction in agricultural production space, followed by grey ecological space and green ecological space, while the expansion of rural living space, urban living space, industrial and mining production space, and blue ecological space was relatively prominent. (2) In terms of spatial pattern, the spatial pattern changes of the production-living-ecological space in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration at the county scale showed significant regional differences. The counties with reduced production space were concentrated in the central parts of the urban agglomeration, with the reduction gradually decreasing outward from the center. Living space generally showed a distribution pattern with significant increases in the central and southern regions, decreases in the southeast, and relative increases in other counties. Ecological space generally showed a scattered reduction pattern centered on the central and eastern regions. (3) In terms of transformation patterns, the production-living-ecological space exhibited spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics. The transformation patterns of agricultural production space to living space and production space showed tendencies, while the transformation of green ecological space to production space also showed a tendency. During the study period, the transformation of county-level agricultural production space evolved from slow to rapid development. In the early stage, it mainly shifted to industrial and mining production space and urban living space, while in the later stage, it mainly shifted to industrial and mining production space and rural living space. The transformation trend of green ecological space to agricultural production space and rural living space became more significant in the later stage. (4) The transformation patterns of agricultural production space and green ecological space were relatively unstable. Over the past 20 years, production space and living space continuously squeezed agricultural production space, while the pressure from ecological space on agricultural production space slowed in the later stage. Meanwhile, the transformation trend of green ecological space to living space was evident, especially the transformation to rural living space, which became more significant. The research results provided scientific references for formulating territorial spatial zoning and regulatory measures, as well as for fine management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

     

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