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基于MCB-Mamba-FECA的水产养殖溶解氧长期预测模型

Long-term dissolved oxygen prediction model for aquaculture using MCB-Mamba-FECA

  • 摘要: 为了提高大规模水产养殖的效率、降低养殖风险,并为养殖人员提供充足的反应时间以应对溶解氧(dissolved oxygen,DO)浓度的异常变化,该研究基于混合卷积块(mixed convolution block,MCB)改进的Mamba模型和频率增强通道注意力机制(frequency enhanced channel attention,FECA),提出了一种高精度的水产养殖DO长期预测模型MCB-Mamba-FECA(MMFA)。首先,创新性引入了MCB以增强Mamba模型对短期复杂时序模式的捕获能力,实现对水质数据长短期依赖关系的均衡建模。此外,设计了FECA以提取水质数据中的频域特征,通过自适应权重调整强化关键频率信息的表达,从而更好地捕捉水质数据中显著的周期性与高频扰动。最后,在广州南沙某养殖厂对该模型进行了试验验证。结果表明,该研究提出的MMFA模型在DO单步预测中能够与大多数DO预测模型的性能齐平,而在更具挑战性的长期预测任务中则表现更加出色。在120 min的预测任务中相比次优模型平均绝对百分比误差、均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了26.37%、14.29%和26.48%,为水产养殖的智能化管控提供了可靠的技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Dissolved oxygen (DO) is one of the most crucial indicators of the water quality in aquaculture. The insufficient DO levels can inhibit the fish's feeding, halt growth, and potentially cause mortality. While excessive DO concentrations can cause the gas bubble disease. Existing DO prediction has focused mainly on the short- to medium-term in a range of 30–60 min (6–12 steps). Such limited early warning periods can only support the basic emergency interventions. It is often required to effectively manage the risks under the sudden fluctuations of the water quality. Furthermore, the most current DO prediction can rely on the conventional deep learning models, such as Transformers and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. However, the high computational complexity can be confined to balance the long-term dependencies with the short-term dynamic patterns in the time-series data. In this study, a long-term DO prediction was proposed using an enhanced Mamba model with the mixed convolution block (MCB) and the frequency-enhanced channel attention (FECA) mechanism. The prediction horizon was extended to 120 min (24 steps). The emergency response time was expanded by 2-4 times. Aquaculture personnel were provided with a more sufficient time to handle abnormal DO fluctuations. The MCB was also introduced for the Mamba model's capacity to capture the short-term temporal patterns using depthwise separable convolutions with varying kernel sizes. Both long-term dependencies and short-term variations were more balanced in the water quality data. Additionally, the FECA was also designed to extract the frequency-domain features from the water quality time-series data. The weights were adaptively adjusted to emphasize the critical frequency information, thereby improving the detection of significant periodic patterns and high-frequency disturbances. Both time and frequency domain features were integrated into the optimization. The MCB-Mamba-FECA (MMFA) model was achieved in the complex temporal dependencies, significantly improving the accuracy of the long-term DO prediction. A real-world aquaculture dataset was collected from a fish farm in Nansha, Guangzhou Province, China. Experimental results demonstrated that the MMFA model performed better in the single-step predictions, compared with the existing DO prediction models. Substantial advantages were also found in the long-term forecasting tasks. Specifically, the MMFA model was achieved in the 24-step prediction scenario, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.5223%, a ere root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0726 mg/L, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0436 mg/L. There was the reductions of 26.37%, 14.29%, and 26.48%, respectively, compared with the best baseline model. Furthermore, the generalization and effectiveness of the MCB were enhanced in the temporal feature extraction of deep learning models, particularly in the multi-scale temporal patterns. Meanwhile, the average MAPE of the LSTM, temporal convolutional network (TCN), Transformer, and Mamba models decreased by 21.58%, 37.74%, 37.48%, and 25.17%, respectively, after MCB integration. Finally, the cross-seasonal experiments demonstrated that the MMFA exhibited superior generalization to maintain the high predictive accuracy over the rest DO models on the water quality datasets from different seasons. These findings can also provide the technological reference for the intelligent water quality in large-scale aquaculture.

     

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