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基于机器学习的粪污还田过程低氨排放优化策略构建

Optimization strategies towards low ammonia emission during returning manure to the field using machine learning

  • 摘要: 粪污还田是支撑畜牧业与种植业实现种养结合和资源循环的关键环节,但其氨气排放造成生态环境污染。为解决粪污还田过程中氨气排放导致氮素利用效率降低与环境污染的问题,亟需明确粪污还田氨气低排放边界,在保障作物有效氮素供给的同时优化管理措施以减少氨气排放。该研究基于机器学习构建了“氨气低排放边界—排放因子预测—优化策略生成”技术链,在保障作物有效氮素供给的同时最小化氨气排放并优化管理措施。以排放因子(EEF)和累计排放量(ECE)为输入特征,对排放数据进行聚类,划分高、低排放组;再运用支持向量机回归(support vector regression,SVR)明确低排放边界,并探究变量间非线性关系;并且开发粪污还田氨气排放因子预测模型,融入多头注意力机制的神经网络氨气排放因子,最后基于预测模型与低排放边界构建低氨排放优化策略,迭代调整粪污施用方式、干物质含量、pH 值等关键管理参数,以降低氨气排放。结果表明,划分的低排放因子边界范围为0.165~0.173之间,较 IPCC 指南中畜禽粪污排放因子默认值 0.210及相关研究均值 0.197更低,为农业粪污还田提供更严格的低排放目标;高排放组 EEF 值集中于 0.150以上、ECE 值多大于 50 kg/hm2,低排放组 EEF 值主要分布在 0.050~0.150、ECE 集中于 10~20 kg/hm2,两类排放组特性差异显著。通过神经网络开发的氨气排放因子预测模型在低排放因子区域预测鲁棒性高,数据点总体分布在理想拟合线附近;基于低排放边界和预测模型构建的优化策略生成器,通过优先调整粪污施用方式(从表施改为条带施用,氨减排效果提升 50%~80%)、其次调整干物质含量(如从 0.320% 降至 0)、最后调整 pH值(如从 7.7降至 6.2,pH值保持 5.5可显著减少氨气排放),在中高施氮量(150~250 kg/hm2)样本中排放因子削减效果尤为显著,显著降低了氨气排放因子。基于低排放边界和预测模型构建的优化策略生成器通过特征调整来优化粪污施用方式与粪污性质,显著降低了氨气排放因子。该研究为中国精准施肥与氨气减排提供技术支持。

     

    Abstract: Returning manure to the field is one of the most crucial links to integrate livestock and crop farming in the resource recycling of precise agriculture. However, its ammonia (NH3) emission has posed a serious threat to the ecological environment. It is often required to reduce nitrogen use efficiency and environmental pollution caused by ammonia emission during manure application. It is also urgent to define the low-ammonia-emission boundaries for the return of manure to the field. The effective supply of nitrogen to crops can greatly contribute to the optimal measure to minimize the ammonia emissions. This study aims to develop a technology chain with the "low-ammonia-emission boundary definition—emission factor prediction—optimization strategy generation" using machine learning. Ammonia emissions were also reduced to optimize the practices for the effective nitrogen supply of the crops. Specifically, the emission factors (EEF) and cumulative emissions (ECE) were used as the input features to cluster emission data. The samples were then classified into high- and low-emission groups. Subsequently, Support vector regression (SVR) was employed to define the low-emission boundaries. A systematic investigation was made to explore the nonlinear relationships between variables. Additionally, a prediction model was developed for the ammonia emission factors from manure application. A multi-head attention mechanism was also integrated into the neural network to predict the ammonia emission factors. Finally, a low-ammonia-emission optimization was established, according to the prediction model and low-emission boundaries. The key parameters were adjusted to reduce the ammonia emissions, such as manure application, dry matter content, and pH value. The results showed that the boundary range was defined between 0.160 and 0.170 for the low emission factors (EEF), which was lower than both the default value of 0.210 for the livestock manure emission factors specified in the IPCC guidelines and the average of 0.190 reported in previous studies. A more precise low-emission target was then provided for the agricultural manure returning to the field. In the high-emission group, EEF values were concentrated above 0.150, and most ECE values exceeded 50 kg/hm2. In contrast, EEF values of the low-emission group were distributed mainly between 0.050 and 0.150, whereas ECE values were concentrated between 10 and 20 kg/hm2, indicating the significant differences between the two groups. The prediction model of the ammonia emission factor with the neural network also exhibited high robustness to predict the low-emission factor region, where the data points were generally distributed around the ideal fitting line. The optimization strategy generator (that constructed using the low-emission boundaries and prediction model) was prioritized adjustments to the manure application (from surface application to band application, which was improved ammonia emission reduction efficiency by 50%-80%), followed by adjustments to dry matter content (e.g., reducing from 0.320% to 0), and finally adjustments to pH value (e.g., decreasing from 7.7 to 6.2; a pH value of 5.5 was maintained to significantly reduce the ammonia emissions). Notably, the emission factor was particularly reduced in the samples with the medium to high nitrogen application rates (150-250 kg/hm2), leading to a substantial decrease in the ammonia emission factors. In conclusion, the optimization strategy generator on the low-emission boundaries and the prediction model can be expected to optimize the manure application and properties using feature adjustments, significantly reducing the ammonia emission factors. This finding can also provide technical support for the precision fertilization and ammonia emission reduction.

     

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