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2010—2022年中国农业温室设施空间格局及变化趋势

Spatial pattern and evolutionary trends of agricultural greenhouse facilities in China from 2010 to 2022

  • 摘要: 设施农业是农业现代化的重要支柱,温室作为核心载体,对提升产业效益、优化区域布局和调节作物茬口等方面作用显著。针对国家尺度的温室设施多时相空间格局研究存在空白,该研究运用空间自相关、标准差椭圆等方法揭示2010—2022年中国农业温室设施时空格局、特征及变化趋势与时空变化。结果表明:1)2010—2022年全国农业温室设施呈“总量翻番、高等级倍增、西部崛起、多极并进”的新格局。农业温室设施面积从555460 hm2跃升至1295480 hm2,>17000 hm2的大规模县级单元由3个增至8个,无农业温室设施的县级单元从1620个减至985个。2)2010—2022年全局莫兰指数由0.27 缓降至0.23,温室设施空间上仍呈轻度集聚,但整体趋于离散。高—高集聚区单元数先减后增,低—低集聚区单元数则持续扩大。3)2010—2022年全国农业温室设施总体呈扩张态势,但不同时段差异明显。2010—2016年呈现普遍快速增加,2016—2022年快速增加单元减少,部分单元呈现适度减少。2010—2022年全国农业温室设施空间重心从山东平原移至河南卫辉,农业温室设施的海拔和坡度分布总体基本不变,但趋于变大。该研究结果深化了全国农业温室设施时空格局动态演变的认识,可为设施农业发展规划及管理决策提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Facility agriculture, with greenhouse facilities as its cornerstone, serves as a critical driver of agricultural modernization by enhancing productivity, optimizing spatial allocation, and mitigating phenological constraints. Despite its strategic importance, systematic analyses of the spatiotemporal evolution of greenhouse facilities distributions at the national scale remain limited, hindering evidence-based policymakin. This study employs spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipse methods to analyze the distribution dynamics of China’s agricultural greenhouse facilities from 2010 to 2022, to provide data support for national-level facility agriculture planning, management, and policy formulation. The results show that:1) From 2010 to 2022, China’s agricultural greenhouse facilities exhibited a new pattern characterized by "doubled total coverage, multiplied high-density clusters, western expansion, and multi-polar development". The greenhouse facilities area surged from 55 5460 hm2 to 1 295 480 hm2, with an increase of 133%. The number of Class V counties increased from 3 to 8, Class IV counties increased from 6 to 30, and Class III and Class II counties also increased, while the number of Class I counties without greenhouse facilities decreased from 1 620 to 985. 2) The global Moran’s I index declined from 0.27 to 0.23 during 2010 to 2022, indicating that although greenhouse facilities still show a mild clustering trend, the overall distribution was becoming more dispersed. The number of high-high clustering units initially decreased and then rebounded. There were 125 high-high clustering units in 2010 (mainly were located in Shandong and Liaoning), decreased to 105 in 2016, and increased to 127 in 2022, with the increase concentrated in Yunnan. The number of low-low clustering units continued to expand from 526 to 761, mainly were located in the central and western provinces such as Sichuan, Hunan, and Guangxi. Policy guidance, market demand, and resource endowment together drove the shift of the pattern of agricultural greenhouse facilities from “the dual-core pattern in the east” to"stable in the east, rising in the west, and multi-polar development." 3) From 2010 to 2022, China's agricultural greenhouse facilities showed an overall expansion trend, though with notable variations across different time periods. From 2010 to 2016, the dominant trend was "rapid increase" with 41.32% of counties experienced growth rates exceeding 80%, mainly distributed in Hebei and Shanxi. Only 8.06% of counties experienced rapid decreases, mainly in Yunnan and Anhui. From 2016 to 2022, due to the stricter policies, the number of counties with trend of "rapid increase" decreased, and the hotspot was shifted to Yunnan and Henan. The number of counties with trend of "rapid/moderate decrease" increased to 751, mainly in Shanxi and Guangdong, with contraction were observed in Shandong and Hebei. The spatial centroid shifted from Pingyuan County, Shandong Province, to Weihui City, Henan Province, with a movement of 177.07 km to the west and 196.96 km to the south. The long axis of the standard deviation ellipse increased by 188.21 km from 2010 to 2016 and by 130.59 km from 2016 to 2022, indicating a slowdown in the speed of expansion. Meanwhile, 99.47% of greenhouse facilities were distributed below an altitude of 2 000 meters, and 97.38% of greenhouse facilities were distributed on slopes below 4°. The proportion of greenhouse facilities in the altitude range of 1500-2000 meters had increased from 1.83% to 9.25%, and those on slopes above 4°increased from 1.68% to 3.86%, indicating that greenhouse facilities were steadily penetrating higher gradients and more complex terrains. These findings deepen the understanding of the dynamic of the spatial and temporal patterns of China’s agricultural greenhouse facilities and can provide scientific support for the planning and management decision-making.

     

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