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玉米立筒仓温度分布分析与预测模型构建

Temperature distribution analysis and predictive model development for corn upright silos

  • 摘要: 为了实现立筒仓温度精准预测和温度实时控制,该研究以5000 t玉米立筒仓为对象,分析储存时间、仓内外温湿度等关键因素对仓内温度分布的影响,分别采用皮尔逊相关性分析、多元线性回归(multiple linear regression)、套索回归(lasso regression)、岭回归(ridge regression)方法,结合主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA),构建仓内最高温度和平均温度预测模型、分层最高温度和平均温度预测模型,以及立筒仓网格化温度预测模型。结果表明,融合岭回归和XGBoost在多种预测场景中表现较优,该模型在网格化温度预测时训练集和测试集上的均值分别达到0.943和0.953,MSE均值分别为2.35和1.99,提升了预测精度和模型泛化能力。岭回归与XGBoost融合模型在多种情况下均具有很好的预测能力,实现了立筒仓内温度的比较准确的预测,为立筒仓内温度的实时控制提供理论方法和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Upright silos have been widely used as grain storage facilities, due to their high capacity and space efficiency. However, the uneven temperature distribution in silos can often cause potential grain spoilage and economic losses. Effective temperature management is required to reduce the post-harvest losses for high grain quality. Especially, there is an increasing global food demand and climate challenges. Since the existing research has focused on the temperature prediction models, it is still lacking in the necessary precision and adaptability, particularly in complex environments, like upright silos. This study aims to analyze the temperature distribution in a corn upright silo. A high-precision prediction model was then established for the real-time temperature control. A series of tests was conducted on a 5,000-ton corn upright silo in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The temperature data was collected from nine cables across 12 layers between July 2024 and January 2025. Pearson correlation analysis was implemented to assess the relationships between storage duration, internal/external temperatures and humidity, and temperature variations within the silo. The prediction models were constructed using Multiple linear regression (MLR), Lasso regression, Ridge regression, and XGBoost. The maximum and average temperatures were predicted to fully meet the temperature forecasts and gridded temperature predictions. Importantly, a hybrid model was proposed and then validated to combine with the Ridge regression and XGBoost. The results show that in the highest temperature prediction of layers 3 to 12, the Ridge regression model's average R²was 0.910 with an average MSE of 6.67, while XGBoost achieved an average R² of 0.942 and an average MSE of 8.15. The hybrid model demonstrated superior performance with an average R² of 0.944 and an average MSE of 3.75. In the average temperature prediction of layers 3 to 12, the Ridge regression model had an average R²of 0.904 and an average MSE of 5.86, whereas XGBoost achieved an average R² of 0.939 and an average MSE of 7.83. The hybrid model was further improved with an average R² of 0.946 and an average MSE of 3.63. Therefore, the hybrid model performed exceptionally well for the prediction of each temperature measurement point. There were the average R²values of 0.943 and 0.953 on the training and test sets, respectively, with the MSE values of 2.35 and 1.99, respectively. Overall, the highly accurate temperature prediction was achieved using Ridge regression and hybrid models. The great contribution was also gained for the real-time temperature control and grain storage optimization in the corn upright silos. Multiple environmental factors were integrated with the advanced statistical methods in order to enhance the model's robustness and generalization. The grid-based model can also provide the temperature predictions for each measurement point. Grain losses can be reduced after real-time temperature management in the grain storage facilities. Future research can further enhance the performance and adaptability in extreme conditions. Additional factors can be incorporated, such as the grain type, storage volume, and ventilation conditions. The research findings can offer valuable insights to improve the grain storage practices for food security. Additionally, the optimal models can be extended to the agricultural storage scenarios in food preservation. The models can be refined for the more specific data and real-time monitoring. The practical application can also offer a strong reference for the grain storage facilities in modern and intelligent agriculture.

     

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