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高温热害对水稻水分利用效率的影响及其阈值识别

Effects of high-temperature stress on rice water use efficiency and the identification of critical thresholds

  • 摘要: 为了深入揭示高温热害对水稻生产的影响,该研究采用南京和昆山水稻田间试验数据,驱动ORYZA V3作物模型模拟孕穗期、开花期、灌浆期单一及多阶段耦合热害情景,解析生育期动态、产量构成与水分利用效率(water use efficiency,WUE)响应规律。结果表明:1)发育速率转折阈值:高温积温(heat degree-days)HDD≤11.1℃·d(南京)和20.7 ℃·d(昆山)时,水稻生育期缩短,而超阈值后水稻发育速率显著降低,昆山极端热害下生育期延长28 d;2)WUE关键阈值:水稻在高温热害下WUE持续下降,遭遇开花-灌浆期耦合热害且HDD ≥40 ℃·d时非线性衰退提速,极端热害下降至16.99%(南京)和16.80%(昆山);3)多阶段耦合热害效应显著:多阶段耦合热害触发产量非线性崩塌,最高减产达79%(南京)和77%(昆山),单阶段热害减产仅在15%以内;4)高温热害通过改变水稻生殖生长期的碳-水耦合平衡,引发水分利用效率断崖式下降,建议采用灌溉制度优化和种植时段调整构建适应性调控技术体系,该成果可为应对气候变化下双重气候风险(干旱与热浪复合)的水稻适应性管理提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: High-temperature heat damage has been a serious risk to the rice water use efficiency (WUE) under global climate change. Critical thresholds can be required to identify in sustainable agriculture and water resources. For instance, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River—a key rice-producing region where output contributes over one-third of the nation's total rice yield—experiences frequent high-temperature heat damage events that severely threaten the stability of rice production. Therefore, this study aims to calibrate and validate the ORYZA V3 crop model. Soil properties, crop data, field management data, and historical meteorological data were collected from two typical experimental stations in Nanjing and Kunshan within the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Then, 126 high-temperature heat damage scenarios were set (6 stage combinations × 3 durations × 7 temperature ranges) covering single-stage (booting, flowering, and grain-filling), multi-stage (booting+flowering, booting+grain-filling, and flowering+grain-filling), different durations (D1–D3), and varying temperature ranges (T1–T7), particularly without altering existing cultivation and agronomic measures. According to the calibrated and validated ORYZA V3 crop model, a systematic investigation was made to simulate the impacts of each scenario on the rice reproductive growth at two typical experimental stations. A mechanistic analysis was then implemented to clarify how high-temperature heat damage affected the rice yield, growth period, water requirements, and WUE. Threshold responses were identified to propose the adaptive strategies for the national food security and sustainable agriculture. The results indicate that: 1) Model adaptability: There was an excellent correlation on the evaluation metrics during both the calibration and validation periods. Specifically, the R² generally ranged between 0.89 and 0.99. The relative root mean square error (RMSEn) for the total dry weight (WAGT), weight storage organs (WSO), stem weight (WST), leaf weight (WLVG), and leaf area index (LAI) during calibration (validation) periods were 6.20% (7.50%), 14.91% (8.82%), 14.32% (13.51%), 19.91% (19.92%), and 13.42% (19.03%), respectively. All RMSEn values were below 20%, indicating the high simulation accuracy and strong adaptability of the model to rice growth at the two experimental sites. 2) Developmental Rate Transition Threshold: High-temperature accumulated degree thresholds significantly dominated the developmental progress. The rice growth period shortened in regions with the low thresholds, where HDD ≤ 11.1 °C·d (Nanjing) and 20.7 °C·d (Kunshan). Above these thresholds, both stations exhibited a significant reduction in the developmental rates. For instance, Kunshan shared a 28-day prolongation of the growth period under extreme heat stress. Moreover, the sensitivity to high-temperature heat damage greatly varied over the developmental stages: booting > flowering > grain-filling stage. The booting stage exhibited the highest sensitivity, due to its direct link to the cell cycle regulation of the reproductive meristems. 3) WUE Critical Threshold: Under high-temperature heat stress, the WUE of rice continuously decreased. A nonlinear acceleration of decay was observed when coupled heat stress occurred during the flowering-grain filling stage and HDD ≥40 °C·d. Under extreme heat stress, the WUE declined to 16.99% in Nanjing and 16.80% in Kunshan. 4) Water Requirement and WUE shared Inverse Relationship: Under single-stage heat stress, the increase in water requirement or decrease in WUE was significantly greater in Kunshan than in Nanjing. Multi-stage coupled heat stress further amplified this difference. The water metabolism resilience of rice under high-temperature heat stress in Kunshan was far lower than that in Nanjing. 5) Significant Effect of Multi-stage Coupled Heat Stress: The rice yield exhibited a weak linear decline under single-stage heat stress, where the reduction slope in Nanjing was higher than that in Kunshan. Yet the reductions remained within 15%. Multi-stage coupled heat stress also triggered nonlinear yield collapse. When the HDD ranged from 60 to 112 °C·d, the maximum yield reduction reached 79% in Nanjing and 77% in Kunshan. 6) High-temperature heat stress induced a cliff-like decline in WUE, where the carbon-water coupling balance was disrupted during rice reproductive growth. It was recommended to adopt the irrigation system optimization and planting periods in order to establish an adaptive framework. This finding can provide scientific support to the rice adaptation strategies under dual climate risks (compound drought-heat events) under climate change.

     

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