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基于GEE的内蒙古地区极端气温时空特征及其对大气环流因子的响应

Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme temperatures and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in Inner Mongolia Region using GEE

  • 摘要: 科学揭示极端气候的时空变化规律对保障生态环境安全和推进农牧业可持续发展具有重要意义。以内蒙古自治区为研究区,基于谷歌地球引擎(Google Earth Engine,GEE)和ERA5-Land再分析数据构建研究区1951—2020年16种极端气温指数的年尺度时空序列,全面分析极端气温的时空分布特征,并采用Sen斜率估计和Mann-Kendall检验探析研究区在70 a研究期中的演变趋势,最后利用皮尔逊相关系数分析主要大气环流指数与内蒙古地区极端气温的相关关系。结果表明:1)内蒙古地区极端气温指数呈显著的地域差异,中部阴山山脉和东北部大兴安岭地区霜冻日数和冰冻日数普遍较高,而西部沙漠区域夏季日数和热夜日数较高;日最高气温极大值和日最低气温极大值在西部沙漠地区普遍较高,在山地区域则较低;日最高气温极小值和日最低气温极小值在西部和西南部的沙漠、沙地区域较高,在中部和东北部地区则相对较低;冷、暖持续指数、气温日较差和生长季长度均表现出明显的区域差异,整体反映了内蒙古地区复杂的气候与地理特征。2)内蒙古地区极端气温指数普遍呈现出显著的变暖趋势,低温指数显著降低、高温指数显著升高,表明内蒙古地区的极端冷事件在逐渐减少,而极端热事件的频率和强度则在增加。3)4种大气环流指数中,北极涛动指数对内蒙古地区极端气温的影响较为显著,促进了内蒙古东北地区冬季温暖化,太平洋年代际涛动指数主要影响西部沙漠地区,而北大西洋涛动和南方涛动指数的影响则十分微弱。研究结果可为内蒙古地区农牧业可持续发展及相关领域科学研究提供基础数据支持。

     

    Abstract: The increasing frequency of extreme climate events has not only directly affected vegetation growth but also posed serious threats to agricultural-pastoral production and ecological sustainability. To facilitate global and regional studies on climate extremes, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) defined 27 core climate indices. Among these, temperature-related indices are critical for understanding the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme temperature events and their driving mechanisms, which are essential for regional ecological conservation and agricultural security. However, previous studies mostly focused on station-scale data and lacked systematic investigations at the regional level over longer timescales. Moreover, the causes of extreme climate involve multiple factors and the driving mechanisms remain poorly understood, although recent findings have indicated a strong relationship between their variability and atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of extreme temperature using 16 temperature-related ETCCDI indices in Inner Mongolia, China. We constructed the annual time series of extreme temperature indices based on ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset on Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and utilized Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test and Pearson correlation coefficient to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperatures and the causes of atmospheric circulation in Inner Mongolia from 1951 to 2020. First, meteorological station data were used to validate the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily minimum temperature in ERA5-Land reanalysis data to verify the consistency of the ERA5-Land reanalysis data and the meteorological station temperature data. Second, the annual time series of the extreme temperature indices were calculated using ERA5-Land data within the GEE platform, and the Sen slope estimation and Mann-Kendall test methods were used to analyze the spatial distribution and changing trends of extreme temperatures. As the final step, the Pearson correlation coefficient method was employed to analyze the correlation between the extreme temperature indices and the atmospheric circulation indices, thereby identifying the dominant drivers of extreme temperature variability in Inner Mongolia.The results showed that: 1) extreme temperature indices exhibited clear spatial heterogeneity. Frost days and ice days were most frequent in the central Yinshan Mountains and northeastern Greater Khingan Range, whereas summer days and tropical nights were more common in the western desert regions. Maximum values of daily maximum and minimum temperatures were highest in desert areas, while mountainous regions had the lowest. Other indices, such as cold/warm spell durations, diurnal temperature range, and growing season length, also displayed distinct regional patterns, reflecting Inner Mongolia’s complex climatic and geographic features. 2) Most extreme temperature indices demonstrated significant warming trends, with cold indices decreasing and warm indices increasing, indicating a reduction in extreme cold events and an intensification of extreme heat events. 3) Among the four atmospheric circulation indices examined, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) had the most significant impact, contributing to winter warming in northeastern Inner Mongolia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mainly influenced the western deserts, while the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) showed minimal effects. These findings offer valuable insights for regional ecological management and the sustainable development of agriculture and animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia.

     

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