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耕地利用绿色转型的内涵、进展与展望

Conceptual connotation, research progress and prospect of green transition of farmland use

  • 摘要: 在全球人口增长和气候变化等多重压力叠加的背景下,耕地资源系统正面临粮食安全与生态安全的双重挑战。作为全球人口和农业大国,中国推进耕地利用绿色转型不仅关乎碳达峰与碳中和战略目标的实现,更是构建新型人地关系、保障农业可持续发展的关键命题。该研究采用叙事性文献综述、主题分析与案例研究方法,梳理耕地利用绿色转型的内涵认知和研究进展,并展望未来研究趋势。研究发现,现有研究对耕地利用绿色转型的理论内涵尚不明确,转型表征方法与时空格局研究局限性较大,影响因素与驱动机制的识别缺乏综合分析框架,转型的多维效应与治理对策探索仍处于初步阶段,尚未形成系统的量化评估体系。基于此,未来研究亟需跨学科理论融合,结合遥感监测、大数据挖掘与人工智能技术,构建“多尺度-多维度”动态表征体系;深化系统动力学模型与空间计量方法在驱动机制研究中的应用;探索“生态-经济-社会”综合效应评估框架,并加强政策工具的定量化模拟与区域适配性分析。本研究可为耕地利用绿色转型的理论体系完善与实践路径优化提供科学支撑,也为农业高质量发展与国土空间治理政策创新提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: A farmland system has been required to balance the food security and ecological sustainability under the dual pressures from global population and global warming. Sustainable human-land relationships can be redefined as the populous large-scale agriculture in China. Among them, the green transition of farmland use (GTFU) is very critical to attain the carbon peaking and neutrality. This research aims to perform on the literature review, thematic analysis and case study, in order to systematically examine the conceptual connotation and research progress on the GTFU. Subsequently, the future outlooks were also proposed to advance the research direction in this field. The mainstream conceptualization of the GTFU was integrated with the "farmland green use" (on the sustainable states/practices like green technologies) and "farmland use transition" (value-neutral morphological variations). Specifically, there was the dynamic shift from the "high-input, high-consumption, and high-pollution " to the "low-consumption, low-emission, high-efficiency" mode. The dominant (quantity, and spatial structure) and recessive (quality, function, and input-output) morphologies were optimized and then driven by policy, markets, and technology—with the core dimensions of the "greenness" (resource-environment-ecology synergy via technology substitution, and resource optimization) and "transition" (fundamental functional shift towards production-ecology integration). The research progress revealed that: 1a) Existing conceptual operationalization of the GTFU was relied on the approaches, like the input-output efficiency (e.g., green eco-efficiency), dominant-recessive morphology transition, social-ecological system attributes (e.g., adaptability, vitality, and resilience), and resource element nexus (e.g., WEF-Carbon). Yet, these approaches were typically overemphasized on the economic efficiency without considering the social/ecological/cultural dimensions or data/complexity constraints. 1b) Spatiotemporal analysis indicated that the overall transition level was moderate-low but rising unevenly, with the significantly regional disparities (e.g., higher levels in the plains/low hills vs. mountains) and the emerging positive spatial autocorrelation. Most studies were confined to the macro-scales with the static snapshots. It was still lacking on the micro-scale granularity and dynamic monitoring. 2a) Influencing factors were the external drivers—natural conditions (terrain, climate, and increasingly extreme weather), socio-economic forces (urbanization showing dual effects: positive via technology adoption/green demand but negative via labor shortage/pollution; economic level generally positive but potentially incentivizing short-term pollution), technology advancement, and policy instruments (crucial yet complex, where excessive intervention was hindered the innovation)—and internal drivers that linked to the stakeholder characteristics (farmers' age/education; and cooperatives/enterprises' scale/capacity). There was also the high spatial heterogeneity. Yet it was still lacking to integrate the frameworks and dynamic simulations (e.g., system dynamics) with the nonlinear interactions across diverse regions. 3a) Multidimensional factors included the ecological gains (pollution/carbon reduction, and soil health/carbon sequestration enhancement), economic benefits (improved efficiency, and productivity, income), and social improvements (employment optimization, and health risk reduction), though the assessment was remained on the fragmented without the "ecological-economic-social" framework or the inter-effect synergies/trade-offs. 3b) Governance policy was progressively evolved from the conceptualization (pre-2015) to the implementation (2015-2017), comprehensive integration (2018-2020), and refined, regionalized, low-carbon strategies (2021-present). The basic quantity protection of the "quantity-quality-ecology" was shifted from the administrative to the tech/institution-integrated approaches. The pathways were still lacked on the regional differentiation and quantitative evaluation. The critical research gaps were then focused on the theoretical foundations, limited characterization, dynamic monitoring, insufficient understanding of nonlinear driver interactions across geographies, fragmented assessment, and inadequate regionally-tailored governance design/evaluation. Therefore, the future research on the GTFU should: 1) develop the interdisciplinary theoretical frameworks that centered on the farmland-relevant social-environmental coupling; 2) enhance the conceptual operationalization with the ecological-economic-social metrics. Big data/AI was used for the standardized and multi-scale dynamic analysis; 3) deepen driver analysis using system dynamics/agent-based modeling to simulate the interactions and scenarios; 4) establish the comprehensive multi-dimensional evaluation on the synergies/trade-offs; and 5) design/evaluate to tailor the "place-based, multidimensional, and multi-level" governance policies via natural experiments and multi-objective optimization. These advancements can greatly contribute to the GTFU theory and practice. Ultimately, the finding can also provide the strong support to the national food security, ecological conservation, carbon goals, and rural revitalization in China.

     

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