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考虑极端干旱应急需水的水库分级旱限水位动态控制

Dynamic control of graded drought-limited water level of reservoir considering under extreme drought emergency water demand

  • 摘要: 为应对极端干旱下区域水资源可用量骤减、骨干水库抗旱供水任务大幅增加且常规调度难以满足需求的问题,该研究以河北省王快、西大洋水库及沙河、唐河灌区为例,考虑极端条件下需水突增的特殊情景,设计常规与极端干旱情景下供需边界,进而计算水库常规-特殊旱限水位并制定可动态切换的分级旱限水位控制规则,同时通过设置多方案对比分析其在特枯水年和典型连枯年中的调控效果。结果表明:王快水库和西大洋水库应用常规-特殊旱限水位后,沙河灌溉和唐河灌溉在特枯水年缺水状况得到明显改善,缺水量分别减少了6653万m33245万m3;在典型连枯年内,水库通过提前存蓄,使得沙河灌溉和唐河灌溉严重缺水时段的供水保障率由不足10%分别提升至约90%和50%,极端破坏过程转变为宽浅式破坏,有效降低了严重缺水风险,提升了农业灌溉保障水平。研究成果可为水库抗旱决策和极端干旱条件下的应急管理提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Under extreme drought conditions, the available water volume from regional sources declines sharply, while the drought-relief water-supply tasks assigned to major reservoirs increase rapidly. Conventional reservoir operation rules cannot satisfy these heightened and rapidly changing demands, leading to limited effectiveness of drought - response operations and a reduced capacity to buffer severe water-supply shortages across sectors. This study adopts a demand-oriented perspective to distinguish between normal and extreme drought scenarios and develops a graded drought-limited water level (DLWL) determination and dynamic control method that accounts for both historical supply-demand patterns and abrupt surges in water demand during extreme events. The method comprises three primary steps: (1) defining supply-demand boundaries for different drought scenarios using characteristic water-use patterns and long-term hydrological statistics, (2) calculating regular and special DLWLs that represent minimum storage thresholds needed to satisfy normal and extreme drought demand conditions, respectively, and (3) formulating dynamic control rules that enable switching between the regular and special DLWLs according to drought severity, reservoir storage evolution, and projected demand surges. A case study was conducted for Wangkuai and Xidayang reservoirs and the Shahe and Tanghe irrigation districts in Hebei Province. The regular-special DLWL was calculated and a dynamically switchable graded DLWL control strategy was developed to guide drought-response operations. Under this strategy, the regular DLWL mode was applied in normal drought conditions to ensure water supply for urban domestic use, agricultural irrigation, and ecological baseflow, whereas the special DLWL mode was activated under extreme drought conditions to prioritize urban domestic water supply while moderately restricting agricultural irrigation and further limiting ecological water use. Three scheduling schemes (the current scheme, a fixed regular-DLWL scheme, and the proposed regular-special DLWL scheme) were implemented for comparative analysis. The evaluation focused on extremely dry years and typical multi-year consecutive dry periods. Results indicate that applying the regular-special DLWL scheme substantially mitigated shortages in extremely dry years: total water shortages in the Shahe and Tanghe irrigation districts decreased by 66.53 million m3 and 32.45 million m3, respectively. During typical consecutive dry years, earlier strategic storage triggered by the special DLWL markedly improved water supply guarantee rate during several severely impacted periods, increasing from below 10% to approximately 90% and 50%, respectively. Over the multi-year droughts, irrigation shortages in the two districts declined by 186.20 million m3 and 182.74 million m3, respectively, and the number of months with severe shortage decreased by 7 and 32 months, effectively alleviating deficits in critical sectors and reducing the frequency and duration of acute water-stress episodes. Moreover, the proposed approach more effectively transforms the extreme shortage process into a wider and shallower shortage pattern. This transition reduces the incidence of high-intensity shortage episodes, lowers the risk of severe shortages, and improves the guarantee rate for agricultural irrigation. The research results can provide scientific support for reservoir drought resistance decision-making and emergency management under extreme drought conditions.

     

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