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基于“要素—格局—效应”的矿业城市土地利用空间冲突模拟

Assessment and simulation of land use spatial conflict in mining cities from the element-pattern-effect perspective

  • 摘要: 全面评估与科学模拟土地利用空间冲突是协调矿业城市人地关系和支撑城市转型发展的关键。然而,既有研究多关注土地利用空间冲突的单维属性,而统筹多维视角识别与模拟冲突的研究尚显不足。该研究聚焦土地利用空间冲突的多重属性特征,提出了基于“要素—格局—效应”的冲突评估方法,构建了集要素重构、格局优化和效应管控于一体的耦合模型链以模拟多情景冲突。以山东省新泰市为例,对比分析了多情景下冲突风险、冲突强度和冲突规模特征,并提出以协调冲突为核心的土地利用优化建议。结果表明:1)土地利用空间冲突是以土地要素配置失调和土地利用格局失衡为冲突表象,以土地利用效益下降为直接响应的矛盾集合体,其识别是基于一段时间内不同维度冲突风险的变化趋势综合诊断。2)不同维度冲突风险在不同情景下差异性显著,经济优先情景下产生冲突的风险性最高,平均风险指数为0.297。3)兼顾发展情景下,土地利用空间冲突强度和规模均有所下降,较自然发展情景分别减少0.006和79.92 km2。该研究拓宽了土地利用空间冲突研究思路,以期为矿业城市转型发展和土地可持续利用提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Land use spatial conflict (LUSC) is one of the most serious contradiction with the negative impacts on society, economy, and ecology. Among them, the land use of the mining cities can be exerted on the double pressure from the historical legacy and realistic needs. The more intense competition on the land use has formed the multiple land use conflicts and contradictions. The allocation of the land elements can often be required to balance the utilization pattern and land management. The key obstacles have been confined to the sustainable land use in the mining cities. Therefore, it is crucial to assess and then simulate the LUSC and human-land relations in the urban transformation. However, the existing studies have focused predominantly on the single-dimensional attributes of the LUSC. Multidimensional perspectives can be expected to integrate the conflict identification and simulation. In this study, a conflict assessment framework was proposed to determine the multiple attributes of the LUSC using “element-pattern-effect” perspectives. GA-MAS-CA model chain was also constructed to integrate the element reconstruction, pattern optimization, and effect control, in order to simulate the multi-scenario conflicts. A case study was taken as the Xintai City, Shandong Province, China. A comparison was then made on the conflict risk, intensity, and scale under multiple scenarios. Some suggestions were recommended to optimize the land use under the conflict coordination. The results show that: 1) The LUSC was attributed to the spatial contradictions and competition in the interaction between human socio-economic activities and land use components under the demand of different interests. A contradictory synthesis was formed on the land element allocation, with the disorder of the pattern as the external and the uncontrolled land use. 2) The LUSC contradictions of the land use were accumulated and intensified over a period of time. The conflict trend was identified as the multidimensional risks. The land use contradiction in time was represented by the possibility of LUSC generation, and then defined as the LUSC risk, which was composed of element conflict, pattern conflict, and land use risk. 3) The LUSC risk, conflict intensity, and conflict scale were 0.329, 0.022, and 163.17 km2, respectively, under the natural development scenario. Specifically, the LUSC risk under the ecological scenario was low (0.288), but the conflict intensity grew slightly (0.033). Under the economic scenario, the LUSC risk (0.297), conflict intensity (0.040), and conflict scale (215.28 km2) shared a significant growth trend. Under the sustainable development scenario, there was the decrease in the LUSC intensity (0.016) and scale (83.25 km2), in order to coordinate the multidimensional LUSC. 4) The conflict coordination and governance path were proposed on the element reconstruction using integration and restoration. The pattern was also optimized to enhance the coordination of the orientation with the “three zones and three lines” as the main theme. The LUSC finding can also provide the scientific support for the transformation and development of the mining cities in the sustainable utilization of the land.

     

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