高级检索+

基于深度学习与IPSO算法校正SWAT模型的黄河宁夏段氮磷模拟

Simulating nitrogen and phosphorus using the SWAT model calibrated by deep learning and the IPSO algorithm in the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River, China

  • 摘要: 土壤与水评估工具(soil and water assessment tool,SWAT)作为一种广泛用于农业非点源(non-point source,NPS)污染模拟的分布式水文模型,虽在许多地区取得成效,但因参数化和水文响应不足,在干旱地区模拟中仍存在不确定性。为解决这一难题,该研究提出一种“物理约束+数据驱动”的混合建模策略:基于SWAT模型与卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络(convolutional neural network-the long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)的耦合方法,并引进改进型粒子群优化算法(improved particle swarm optimization,IPSO)应用于耦合框架中。该方法既同步优化了耦合模型的网络结构与超参数,又将每日输出结果的加权融合权重纳入同一优化向量。通过自适应惯性权重与扰动机制,实现对SWAT模型的误差校正。该研究通过分析单一SWAT模型的局限性,比较了SWAT模型与耦合模型在日尺度模拟精度上的差异,并探讨了IPSO与其他9种元启发式算法在超参数优化中的表现。最终以黄河宁夏段为研究区域,分析耦合模型在模拟总氮(total nitrogen,TN)和总磷(total phosphorus,TP)污染中的性能提升,并对流域NPS污染进行多尺度解析。结果表明,耦合模型在TN和TP模拟中显著优于单一的SWAT模型。TN的决定系数(determination coefficient,R2)、纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency,NSE)、百分比偏差(percent bias,PBIAS)和中心均方根误差(centered root mean square error,CRMSE)分别提高了14.1%、14.5%、38.6%和32.5%;TP的R2、NSE、PBIAS和CRMSE分别提高了10.7%、12.0%、65.3%和40.7%。基于耦合模型的流域NPS污染时空分异分析显示,丰水期的峰值主要由降水和施肥协同作用导致,枯水期受宁夏冬灌影响。南部子流域的污染主要受降水径流驱动,北部灌区则由农业集约化主导。水系区间NPS污染贡献排名中,引黄灌区贡献31%~37%的TN和TP排放,红柳沟和苦水河水系受集约型农牧业影响,单位面积输出强度较高。研究表明,SWAT-IPSO-CNN-LSTM耦合方法有效降低了SWAT在干旱区站点率定的不确定性,并通过误差修正机制显著提升了氮磷模拟的精度与鲁棒性,为干旱区水环境管理提供了更可靠的技术支持。

     

    Abstract: The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been widely used in distributed-parameter hydrological models in order to simulate agricultural non-point source pollution (NPS) and mitigation strategies. Although the SWAT has presented significant effectiveness in the humid and semi-humid areas, great difficulties still remain in the dry regions. Particularly, the essential parameters are often required to calibrate under water-limited settings. Some challenges are also attributed to the model's reduced depiction of the hydrological response, including the soil moisture dynamics and surface runoff production. In this study, a hybrid framework was established to integrate the "physics-constrained + data-driven" approaches. The SWAT model was also combined with a deep learning architecture, namely a convolutional neural network paired with a long short-term memory network (CNN-LSTM). An enhanced particle swarm optimization technique (IPSO) was included in this linked framework to optimize three elements: the CNN-LSTM network architecture, its hyperparameters, as well as the daily fusion weight that was employed to linearly amalgamate SWAT and CNN-LSTM outputs. Furthermore, the IPSO assessed the error between the fused prediction series and observed pollutant concentrations at each iteration using adaptive inertia weighting and stochastic perturbations. Thereafter, the particle placements were dynamically adjusted in the parameter space. The SWAT and CNN-LSTM models were then used to rotate daily between major (master) and secondary (auxiliary) roles. The error correction markedly diminished the bias in real time. The individual performance of the SWAT and CNN-LSTM was initially evaluated to compare the combined SWAT-IPSO-CNN-LSTM system on daily timescales. Subsequently, the efficacy of IPSO after hyperparameter optimization was assessed against nine metaheuristic algorithms. The Ningxia section of the Yellow River basin was selected as the research region. A multi-scale investigation was implemented on the watershed nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads were simulated, and then the enhancement of the coupled model was simulated. The results show that better performance was achieved over the individual SWAT configuration. In TN simulations, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) rose by 14.1% and 14.5%, respectively, while the percent bias (PBIAS) decreased by 38.6%; In TP simulations, the R² and NSE were enhanced by 10.7% and 12.0%, respectively, while there was a 65.3% reduction in the PBIAS. Moreover, the centered root-mean-square error (CRMSE) decreased from 0.233 (TN) and 0.192 (TP) in the uncoupled SWAT simulations to 0.117 and 0.127, respectively, in the linked framework, indicating a significant reduction in the prediction error. A spatiotemporal study of the coupled model demonstrated that the peak TN (57% of annual maximum) and TP (68%) loads on the wet season were dominated by the synergistic impacts of the intense precipitation and fertilizer application. The NPS levels were relatively slightly reduced in the dry season, due mainly to the compensatory winter irrigation. At the sub-watershed level, the southern areas exhibited the pollution peaks that linked to the rainfall-induced runoff, whereas the northern irrigation districts shared a bimodal pollution pattern mostly driven by intensive agriculture practices. Specifically, the irrigation district of the Yellow River diversion accounted for 31%-37% of the TN and TP loads among river segments; The largest pollutant export per unit area was observed in the Hongliugou and Kushuihe segments, due to the concentrated agropastoral activities. The coupled SWAT-IPSO-CNN-LSTM technique can be expected to efficiently mitigate the calibration uncertainty in a dry watershed. Its adaptive error-correction can accurately and rapidly forecast the daily nutrient pollution. Thus, this hybrid framework can enhance the technological assistance for the water environment in drought-prone areas.

     

/

返回文章
返回