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中国粮食生产空间演变及其影响因素

Grain production spatial evolution and its influencing factors in China

  • 摘要: 探究不同农业区粮食生产空间演化过程及其关键影响因素,有利于粮食生产空间布局和农业资源要素配置的优化调整,并为保障粮食安全及差异化政策制定提供科学依据。研究利用粮食作物种植面积变化率、空间统计分析与热点探测揭示中国粮食生产空间演变的区域分异特征,在此基础上构建多尺度地理加权回归模型,定量识别粮食生产空间演变区域分异的影响因素。结果表明:1)2000—2019年,三大粮食产区主粮单产与种植均呈增长态势,其中主产区单产最高,而产销平衡区有近40%的最大增幅。水稻种植占比最大,主要分布于南部农业区;小麦、玉米与玉米—小麦种植则集中于北部农业区,玉米种植增幅最大达68.16%,小麦与玉米—小麦种植则分别出现长期缩减与扩张。2)粮食生产空间内部转换以黄淮海平原区小麦向玉米—小麦种植转变为主导;外部转换的主要特征是东部粮食主产区和南部产销平衡区其他耕地、森林与草地向粮食用地的大规模转入导致粮食生产空间扩张;西部粮食产销平衡区的转换程度持续较低,而东部粮食主产区和南部产销平衡区的转换程度均处于较高状态。3)农民人均非农收入、非农产业占比、土地城镇化率、劳均农业机械动力、坡度和年均气温是中国粮食生产空间演变区域分异的主导因素,农产品价格、乡村非农劳动力、土壤侵蚀度和年均日照时长是重要因素。4)政策制度的引导与空间保护、产业与劳动力非农化以及地形气候与生态环境的复合约束是粮食生产空间演变区域分异的主要影响机制。中国粮食生产空间演变的区域分异特征明显,未来应通过农业技术、管理模式创新与差异化政策优化调整粮食生产的资源配置与空间布局,促进粮食高质高效生产与农业可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Spatial evolution of the grain production can greatly contribute to the optimization and allocation of the resource elements in the different agricultural zones. Its key influencing factors can also be explored to adjust the spatial layout of grain production. This study aims to divide the distinct stages of the spatial evolution according to the evolutionary context of grain production. The change rate of the grain crops acreage was employed to characterize the speed and direction of the spatial evolution. The “internal-external” conversion features of grain production spaces were then examined to integrate the spatial hotspot detection. A systematic investigation was also made on the spatial evolution and regional differentiation of grain production over the different phases. Finally, a multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was utilized to synthesize the multidimensional driving factors. The socioeconomic and natural environmental elements were also considered to reveal the primary influences on the spatial evolution of the grain production. Furthermore, the driving mechanisms were determined to underlie the regional differentiation of the spatial evolution during grain production. The results showed that: 1) An increasing trend was found in the yield per unit area and acreage of three major grain crops in the three major grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2019. Among them, the main producing areas shared the highest yield per unit area. While the production-marketing balance areas exhibited the largest increase of nearly 40%. Rice was maintained on the largest proportion of the planting areas, and predominantly distributed in the southern regions. Wheat, maize, and maize-wheat planting areas were concentrated in the northern regions. Specifically, the maize planting areas showed the maximum increase (68.16%). While the wheat and maize-wheat planting areas experienced a long-term reduction and expansion, respectively. 2) The internal spatial conversion was dominated by the shift from the wheat to the maize-wheat planting in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The main feature of the external conversion was the spatial expansion of the grain production space. Particularly, the large-scale croplands, forests, and grasslands were converted into the grain planting land in the eastern main grain-producing and the southern production-marketing balance regions. There was a persistently low conversion degree in the western grain production-marketing balance areas. While a high level of the conversion degree was observed in the eastern main grain-producing and the southern production-marketing balance areas. 3) Per farmer non-agricultural income, the proportion of the non-agricultural industries, land urbanization rate, agricultural machinery power per labor force, slope, and annual average temperature were identified as dominant factors of spatial differentiation in grain production conversion. Agricultural producer prices, rural non-agricultural labor force, soil erosion intensity, and annual average sunshine duration were recognized as the significant factors. 4) The regional differentiation was primarily governed by the decision-making and spatial protection, industrial and labor force non-agricultural transition, as well as the composite constraints from topography, climate, and ecological environment. The socio-economic factors interacted with the natural conditions that were subjected to direct constraints and indirect coercion. Ultimately, there was a complex geographic pattern of the spatial evolution. As such, the regional differentiation was also pronounced in the spatial evolution of the grain production. Therefore, the future strategies should optimize the resource allocation and spatial layout using technological innovation, model improvements, and differentiated adjustments. The finding can also provide a scientific basis for food security and differentiated formulation, in order to promote high-quality grain production and sustainable agriculture.

     

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