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基于PLUS模型与自动化权衡三维管控的城乡融合区土地利用多目标优化

Multi-objective optimization of land use in urban-rural integration zones based on the PLUS model and automated trade-off three-dimensional control

  • 摘要: 城乡融合发展是缓解生产-生态-生活空间冲突、优化国土空间资源配置的关键路径。该研究以重庆市城乡融合试验区为对象,基于PLUS模型对2030年自然发展(Natural development scenario)、生态保护(Ecological protection scenario)及耕地保护(Farmland protection scenario)情景下的土地利用格局进行多情景模拟,结合空间叠加分析与Python驱动的多条件自动权衡框架,提出“生态安全底线+耕地保护红线+发展弹性区间”三维管控体系,系统协调生态-经济协同目标。结果表明:①土地利用演变特征揭示了城镇化与生态保护对耕地资源的双重挤压效应,三情景下耕地缩减显著(NDS:22.57 km2,EPS:18.83 km2,FPS:10.42 km2),林地次之,建设用地扩张强度依次为NDS(30.7 km2)>EPS(19.7 km2)>FPS(17.42 km2);②研究区内呈现出空间冲突异质性规律,通过107种斑块组合的冲突区提取,江津区(26687个斑块)与永川区(12100个斑块)冲突强度显著高于其他区域(潼南区3674个斑块),其分异性与自身发展定位与资源优势有关;③多目标优化效能显著,集成斑块在耕地保护(较NDS提升106.57 km2)、建设用地有序调控(较NDS抑制112.16 km2)与生态功能维护(林地保留率提升2.6%)间实现均衡,验证了三维管控体系在国土空间规划中的科学性与可操作性。

     

    Abstract: Urban–rural integrated development has emerged as a core strategic pathway for achieving coordinated regional development in the new era. It plays a pivotal role in mitigating spatial conflicts among production, living, and ecological functions, while promoting the rational and scientific allocation of territorial spatial resources. This study takes the urban–rural integration development pilot zone in Chongqing, China, as a case study—an area characterized by a complex spatial landscape shaped by the compounded challenges of rapid urbanization, ecological fragility, and the demand for sustainable agricultural development.To explore future land use dynamics, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model is employed to construct and simulate three representative land use evolution scenarios: the Natural Development Scenario (NDS), which follows historical trends; the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), which emphasizes environmental preservation; and the Farmland Protection Scenario (FPS), which prioritizes agricultural security. These simulations project land use patterns for the year 2030, providing a scientific basis for evaluating trade-offs among competing land demands.Building upon the scenario simulations, the study integrates spatial overlay analysis with a Python-based multi-condition automated trade-off algorithm to develop an innovative three-dimensional spatial regulation framework. This framework consists of three core control layers: the “Farmland Protection Red Line,” which safeguards essential agricultural areas; the “Ecological Security Baseline,” which preserves vital ecological spaces; and the “Development Flexibility Zone,” which accommodates regional growth needs within defined boundaries. Together, these elements aim to reconcile the tensions among ecological conservation, farmland preservation, and development flexibility.Three key findings emerge from the analysis:Land Use Dynamics: All three scenarios reveal that farmland is under dual pressure from both urban expansion and ecological protection mandates. Significant farmland loss is observed in each case—22.57 km2 under NDS, 18.83 km2 under EPS, and 10.42 km2 under FPS. Similarly, forested areas experience degradation across scenarios. Construction land expands most notably under NDS (30.7 km2), followed by EPS (19.7 km2) and FPS (17.42 km2), underscoring the varying impacts of policy priorities.Spatial Conflict Patterns: The study identifies 107 types of spatial conflict overlays among land patches, demonstrating pronounced regional heterogeneity. High-conflict areas such as Jiangjin District (26,687 conflict patches) and Yongchuan District (12,100 patches) contrast sharply with lower-conflict zones like Tongnan District (3,674 patches). These patterns closely align with disparities in local development strategies and resource endowments.Integrated Regulation Effectiveness: The proposed spatial regulation system offers robust multi-objective optimization. Compared to NDS, it results in a 106.57 km2 increase in protected farmland, a 112.16 km2 reduction in construction land expansion, and a 2.6% improvement in forest retention. These outcomes highlight the framework’s effectiveness in balancing growth with ecological and food security imperatives.This research contributes a novel and empirically validated framework for synergistic “quantity–quality–space” optimization in land use management. It provides a replicable model for territorial spatial planning in transitional and rapidly urbanizing regions. To further enhance its implementation, future work should focus on strengthening ecological compensation mechanisms, integrating real-time data streams with simulation models, and refining legal and institutional safeguards. Additionally, incorporating machine learning techniques may improve parameter calibration, thereby enhancing the framework’s adaptability across diverse regional contexts. This study thus offers valuable theoretical insights and practical strategies for advancing sustainable urban–rural transformation and collaborative governance at multiple scales.

     

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