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1980—2020年中国耕地利用对气候变化的潜在与现实响应

Potential and realistic response of cropland utilization to climate change in China during 1980-2020

  • 摘要: 气候变化通过影响作物种植边界、熟制等方面影响耕地利用。在气候变化加剧的背景下,分析耕地利用对气候变化的响应,对提高农业生产潜力、优化耕地利用布局具有重要意义。该研究采用1980—2020年全国728个气象站点逐日观测数据计算积温和降水量,揭示长期气候在全国时空维度上的分布变化;基于作物需求与熟制特征确定水热指标,分析不同熟制和作物潜在分布区的时空差异;利用县域复种指数、农作物播种面积等统计数据,用多模型机器学习拟合遥感数据,探寻耕地对气候变化的实际响应。结果表明:1)1980年至2020年,中国≥0 ℃的积温(AT0)增速达6.05~16.13 ℃·d/a,≥10 ℃的积温(AT10)增速达7.31~18.37 ℃·d/a,且时间延长。2)潜在一熟区新增47.6万km2适宜种植面积,主要来源于青藏高原等原积温不足地区。三熟区北界北移192.5 km,扩张47.4万km2。小麦适宜区新增4.74万km2,水稻/玉米适宜区新增5.38万km2。3)潜在种植北界北移区域中,东北区域实现了0.07%的作物种植,青藏高原地区实现了0.74%的作物种植。潜在二熟扩张区中辽宁省、黄淮海平原复种指数分别上升0.49、0.05,黄土高原由于秦岭生态保护政策复种指数下降;潜在三熟扩张区中四川盆地表现较优,长江中下游平原复种指数下降0.22。4)东北地区喜温作物成为绝对主导作物,玉米主导区280个县,黑龙江多地新增水稻主导区,小麦主导区向内蒙古东部扩散。该文更加全面地评估耕地利用对长期气候变化的响应,对粮食战略储备与地区农业生产潜力提升政策的制定有十分重要的科学与实际意义。

     

    Abstract: Cropland is highly vulnerable to climate variations and hydrothermal resources. Crop planting boundaries can be altered to reshape the production patterns in cropland. It is often required for the regional potential to the stable and efficient production. This study aims to explore the impacts of climate change on cropland use and their practical responses in cropping systems. Thereby, the cropland distribution was then optimized for the national food security. A systematic analysis was also made to determine the impacts of climate change on cropland use in China from 1980 to 2020. Hydrothermal conditions were evaluated in cropland, according to the data from 728 meteorological stations. The research period was divided into 1980–1990 and 2010–2020. Some changes were examined in the potential cropping systems and the northern planting boundaries of the major grain crops (wheat, maize, and rice). The response of the cropland use was analyzed to fit the prediction of three models—XGBoost, Random Forest, and Decision Tree—according to the remote sensing interpretation data with statistical yearbook data. The results included: (1) the accumulated temperature ≥0°C (AT0) increased at 6.05–16.13 °C·d/a, and ≥10°C (AT10) at 7.31–18.37 °C·d/a, with the prolonged thermal durations. Precipitation showed a 3.1% decreasing trend in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, while other regions exhibited increasing trends. (2) Potential single-cropping zones were expanded by 474,000 km2, primarily in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the rest areas that were previously constrained by low accumulated temperature. Potential double-cropping zones were expanded by ~93,000 km2, and the northern boundary of triple-cropping zones was shifted northward by 192.5 km, thus covering an additional 474,000 km2. The suitable planting area for the wheat was expanded northwestward by 38.4 km (47,400 km2), and that for rice/maize shifted northward by 19.4 km (53,800 km2). (3) The total cropland area increased gradually from 1.754 million km2 in 1980 to 1.793 million km2 in 2000 before declining to 1.767 million km2 in 2020. The national MCI increased by 0.07, among which the Northeast Plain recorded the largest average growth rate of 0.63. But the outstanding declines were found in the Middle and Lower Yangtze Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Sichuan Basin, and Shaanxi Province. In terms of the crop planting, the nationwide wheat sown area decreased by 18.9% with the sharp drops in Northeast China and the Sichuan Basin. But the slight growth was in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, while the rice planting area first declined, then stabilized with a surge in Northeast China and a decline in South China. Maize sown area increased by 105.4%, indicating a trend of "northward expansion and southern extension". (4) In regions with northward-shifted planting boundaries, 67 km2 (0.07%) of cropland in Northeast China and 2817 km2 (0.74%) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was cultivated. In potential double-cropping expansion zones, the MCI increased from 1.03 to 1.08 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, with nearly one-third of counties with the growth; It surged from 0.41 to 0.90 in Liaoning, while decreasing in the Loess Plateau, due to Qinling ecological protection. In the potential triple-cropping zones, the Sichuan Basin performed robustly, whereas the Middle and Lower Yangtze Plain showed a 0.22 decline in the MCI. (5) Thermophilic crops were dominant in Northeast China, with 280 maize-dominated counties. New rice-dominated areas emerged in Heilongjiang, and the wheat-growing regions were expanded eastward into Inner Mongolia. This finding can provide updated temporal insights to integrate the theoretical impacts with empirical changes. The critical and practical implications can also help assess the cropland use responses to climate change of food security and regional agriculture.

     

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