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基于机器学习方法的渔船总吨计算公式分析

Analysis on formula calculation of fishing vessel gross tonnage based on machine learning methods

  • 摘要: 针对船舶总吨计算普遍存在复杂性高、计算过程繁琐以及精度不足等问题,该研究提出一种融合船舶多特征参数与多算法优化的建模方法。首先,基于船舶主尺度参数挖掘相关特征变量,并根据特征变量构建3种总吨非线性回归模型;其次,结合BP神经网络(backpropagation neural network,BPNN)和随机森林(random forest,RF)进行回归预测,并采用非线性最小二乘法和粒子群优化算法对模型进行拟合验证分析;最后,利用南海区域的1913艘渔船数据进行了实验验证。结果表明:随机森林在渔船总吨回归预测中精度方面优于BP神经网络;非线性最小二乘法的平均偏差误差(mean bias error,MBE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)等各项评估指标以及计算效率均优于粒子群优化算法;混合总吨预测模型的各项评估指标上均优于其他模型,其MBE、(root mean squared error,RMSE)、MAE、MAPE和决定系数R2分别为−1.244432.0362、24.481、9.94%、0.9619,模型具有良好的泛化能力和鲁棒性。在此基础上,对实船总吨、国际总吨丈量公式以及模型预测值进行对比,混合总吨预测模型精度要高于国际总吨丈量公式,验证了模型的有效性。本研究利用人工智能机器学习方法,优化渔船总吨的计算模型,提升了渔船总吨计算精度,为渔船数智化设计与管理提供有益参考。

     

    Abstract: Aiming to address the problems of high complexity, cumbersome calculation processes, and insufficient accuracy commonly existing in vessel gross tonnage calculation, this study proposes a modeling method that integrates multiple vessel characteristic parameters with multi-algorithm optimization. Initially, relevant feature variables were mined based on the principal ship dimension parameters. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to conduct a correlation analysis on the selected feature variables, obtaining the Pearson correlation coefficients between the feature variables and the gross tonnage, which helped determine their correlation. Based on these feature variables, three types of nonlinear regression models for gross tonnage were constructed: the linear multiplicative model, the sub-item exponential model, and the hybrid model. These three models were utilized to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the feature variables and the ship's gross tonnage. Subsequently, the dataset of 1,913 fishing vessels in the South China Sea region was divided into training and testing sets in a ratio of 8:2. Specifically, the dataset included 448 trawlers, 479 purse seiners, 440 gillnetters, 237 setnetters, and 309 longliners. Regression prediction of the vessel gross tonnage was performed using both Backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and Random forest (RF). Model fitting and validation analysis were conducted using nonlinear least squares and Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. To verify the robustness of the models, robustness tests with different noise intensities were carried out on different models under various noise intensities of 3%, 5%, 10%, and 20%. Ultimately, experimental validation was conducted using the data of 1,913 fishing vessels in the South China Sea region. The results showed that the Pearson correlation coefficients between the feature variables (length L, beam B, and draft D) and the gross tonnage GT were 0.9377, 0.8204, and 0.9327, respectively. These values, being all close to 1, indicate a strong correlation between length L, breadth B, depth D, and gross tonnage GT. Therefore, length L, breadth B, depth D were selected as the feature variables. In the regression prediction of the gross tonnage of fishing vessels, Random forest outperformed Backpropagation neural network in various error metrics, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), indicating a higher prediction accuracy. The nonlinear least squares method outperformed the Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in various evaluation metrics, including mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), as well as in computational efficiency. The hybrid gross tonnage prediction model outperformed both the linear multiplicative model and the sub-item exponential model in various evaluation metrics, encompassing MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and the R2. Moreover, it demonstrated significantly better interference resistance under different noise intensities compared to the linear product model and the sub-item exponential model. The model's mean bias error (MBE) was -1.2444, its root mean squared error (RMSE) was 32.0362, its mean absolute error (MAE) was 24.481, its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 9.94%, and its coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.9619. These results indicate that the model has good generalization ability and robustness. Building on the proposed modeling method for calculating vessel gross tonnage that integrates feature engineering with multi-algorithm optimization, the study further conducted an in-depth analysis and comparison of actual ship gross tonnage, the International gross tonnage measurement formula, and the model predictions. The results demonstrated that the hybrid gross tonnage prediction model achieved higher accuracy than the international GT measurement formula, thereby validating the effectiveness of the model. By employing artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, this study optimized the calculation model for the gross tonnage of fishing vessels, significantly improving the accuracy of the calculations. This achievement provides valuable references for the digital and intelligent design and management of fishing vessels and helps promote technological progress and management innovation in the fisheries sector.

     

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