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基于机器学习方法的渔船总吨计算公式分析

Calculation of fishing vessel gross tonnage based on machine learning methods

  • 摘要: 针对船舶总吨计算普遍存在复杂性高、计算过程繁琐以及精度不足等问题,该研究提出一种融合船舶多特征参数与多算法优化的建模方法。首先,基于船舶主尺度参数挖掘相关特征变量,并根据特征变量构建3种总吨非线性回归模型;其次,结合BP神经网络(backpropagation neural network,BPNN)和随机森林(random forest,RF)进行回归预测,并采用非线性最小二乘法和粒子群优化算法对模型进行拟合验证分析;最后,利用南海区域的1913艘渔船数据进行了实验验证。结果表明:随机森林在渔船总吨回归预测中精度方面优于BP神经网络;非线性最小二乘法的平均偏差误差(mean bias error,MBE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)等各项评估指标以及计算效率均优于粒子群优化算法;混合总吨预测模型的各项评估指标上均优于其他模型,其MBE、(root mean squared error,RMSE)、MAE、MAPE和决定系数R2分别为−1.244432.0362、24.481、9.94%、0.9619,模型具有良好的泛化能力和鲁棒性。在此基础上,对实船总吨、国际总吨丈量公式以及模型预测值进行对比,混合总吨预测模型精度要高于国际总吨丈量公式,验证了模型的有效性。本研究利用人工智能机器学习方法,优化渔船总吨的计算模型,提升了渔船总吨计算精度,为渔船数智化设计与管理提供有益参考。

     

    Abstract: Vessel gross tonnage can represent the overall internal volume of a ship in the maritime industry, including all spaces, such as cargo areas, living quarters, and on-board spaces. However, the vessel gross tonnage can be limited to a highly complex calculation and low accuracy in general. In this study, an optimal formula was proposed to integrate feature engineering with multiple algorithms using machine learning. Initially, the feature variables were mined using the structural parameters of the ship. A correlation analysis was also conducted on the feature variables. Their correlation was also determined for the Pearson correlation coefficients between the feature variables and the gross tonnage. Three types of nonlinear regressions were performed on the gross tonnage: The linear multiplicative model, the sub-item exponential model, and the hybrid model. The nonlinear relationship between the feature variables and the gross tonnage was then obtained after optimization. Subsequently, the dataset of 1 913 fishing vessels in the South China Sea region was divided into the training and testing sets in a ratio of 8:2. Specifically, the dataset included 448 trawlers, 479 purse seiners, 440 gillnetters, 237 setnetters, and 309 longliners. Regression of the vessel gross tonnage was also performed using Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Random Forest (RF). Model fitting and validation were then conducted using the nonlinear least squares method (LSM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Ultimately, the robustness tests were carried out to verify the models. Different models were also selected with the various noise intensities of 0%, 3%, 5%, 10%, and 20%. The results showed that the Pearson correlation coefficients between the feature variables (length L, width B, and dapth D) and the gross tonnage (GT) were 0.9377, 0.8204, and 0.9327, respectively. These values were all close to 1, indicating a strong correlation between L, B, D, and GT. Therefore, the L, B, and D were selected as the feature variables. Furthermore, RF outperformed BPNN in various error metrics, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), indicating a higher accuracy of the prediction on the gross tonnage of fishing vessels. The nonlinear LSM outperformed the PSO in various evaluation metrics, including mean bias error (MBE), MAE, MAPE, and computational efficiency. The hybrid GT prediction model also outperformed the linear multiplicative model and the sub-item exponential model. Moreover, there was significantly better interference resistance under different noise intensities, compared with the linear product and the sub-item exponential model. The values of the MBE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 were -1.244 4, 32.036 2, 24.481, 9.94%, and 0.961 9, respectively, indicating better generalization and robustness. Vessel gross tonnage was calculated to integrate the feature engineering with multiple algorithms. A comparison was also made on the actual ship gross tonnage, according to the International GT measurement formula, and the prediction. The higher accuracy was achieved to validate the effectiveness of the prediction. Artificial intelligence and machine learning were employed to optimize the prediction for the gross tonnage of the fishing vessels, significantly improving the accuracy of the calculations. This finding can provide valuable references for the digital and intelligent management of the fishing vessels in the fisheries.

     

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