高级检索+

基于机器学习方法的渔船总吨计算公式研究

Research on formula calculation of fishing vessel gross tonnage based on machine learning methods

  • 摘要: 针对船舶总吨计算普遍存在复杂性高、计算过程繁琐以及精度不足等问题,该研究提出一种融合特征工程与多算法优化的建模方法。首先,基于船舶主尺度参数挖掘相关特征变量,并根据特征变量构建了3种总吨非线性回归模型解析吨位非线性关系;其次,结合BP神经网络(Backpropagation Neural Network,BPNN)和随机森林(Random Forest,RF)进行回归预测,并采用非线性最小二乘法和粒子群优化算法对模型进行拟合验证分析;最后,利用南海区域的1913艘渔船数据进行了实验验证,结果表明:随机森林在渔船总吨回归预测中精度方面优于BP神经网络;非线性最小二乘法在平均偏差误差(mean bias error,MBE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)等各项评估指标以及计算效率上要优于粒子群优化算法;混合总吨预测模型在各项评估指标上均优于其他模型,其平均偏差误差(MBE)、均方根误差(root mean squared error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和决定系数(r-squared,)分别为−1.244432.0362、24.481、9.94%、0.9619,模型体现了良好的泛化能力和鲁棒性。在此基础上,对实船总吨、国际总吨丈量公式以及模型预测值进行分析对比,混合总吨预测模型精度要高于国际总吨丈量公式,验证了模型的有效性。本研究利用人工智能机器学习方法,优化渔船总吨的计算模型,提升渔船总吨计算精度,为渔船数智化设计与管理提供有益参考。

     

    Abstract: Aiming to address the problems involving high complexity, cumbersome calculation processes, and insufficient accuracy in general vessel gross tonnage calculation, this study proposes a model approach that integrates feature engineering with multi-algorithm optimization. Initially, feature variables were extracted from principal ship dimension parameters, based on which three nonlinear regression models for gross tonnage were constructed to quantify the nonlinear tonnage relationships. Subsequently, regression prediction was performed separately using Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms, with model fitting and validation analysis conducted through nonlinear least squares and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) methods. Finally, experimental validation was conducted using a dataset of 1,913 fishing vessels in the South China Sea region, and the results demonstrated that both random forest and BP neural network algorithms delivered strong performance in fishing vessel gross tonnage regression prediction, with random forest exhibiting superior accuracy compared to the BP neural network approach. Among the optimization methods, the nonlinear least squares technique yielded better results than the particle swarm optimization algorithm across multiple evaluation metrics, particularly for mean bias error (MBE) , mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), as well as computational efficiency.Comparative analysis of the three regression models revealed that the hybrid gross tonnage prediction model consistently outperformed both the sub-index model and the linear product model across all evaluation indicators. This superior model achieved the following performance metrics: mean bias error (MBE) of -1.2444, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 32.0362, mean absolute error (MAE) of 24.481, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 9.94%, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9619, while also demonstrating excellent generalization capability and robust performance characteristics. Based on this, a comparative analysis was conducted among the actual ship’s gross tonnage, the International Gross Tonnage (GT) measurement formula, and the model predictions. The hybrid gross tonnage prediction model demonstrated higher accuracy than the international GT formula, validating the effectiveness of the model. This study employs artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods to optimize the gross tonnage calculation model for fishing vessels, thereby improving accuracy and providing valuable insights for the digital and intelligent design and management of fishing fleets.

     

/

返回文章
返回