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基于复杂系统协同理论的气候智慧型农业发展水平评估

Evaluation of the development level of climate smart agriculture based on the theory of complex system synergy

  • 摘要: 气候智慧型农业(Climate smart agriculture, CSA)是全球应对气候变化和粮食安全双重挑战的新兴农业发展模式,其核心在于追求“稳产增收-气候适应-减缓排放”3个维度的帕累托最优。评估CSA发展水平对中国农业可持续发展具有重要意义。该研究基于复杂系统协同理论,围绕上述3个维度构建CSA发展水平评估框架,对2013—2022年中国粮食主产区CSA各维度发展水平及气候智慧指数(climate smart index, CSI)进行定量评估,并分析各维度下多目标间的协同与权衡关系。结果表明:1)2013—2022年中国粮食主产区CSI由0.052提升至0.403,整体处于较低水平但呈上升趋势。CSA3个维度得分分别由0.150、0.119和0.110上升至0.624、0.589和0.568,波动特征与CSI变化趋势相一致。稳产增收得分总体高于气候适应和减缓排放2个维度,表明粮食主产区处于CSA发展初级阶段。2)中国粮食主产区CSA发展水平呈现显著的空间非均衡性,空间格局由分散走向集聚,区域差距逐渐缩小;华北、东北及华中粮食主产区逐步形成连片气候智慧区;大部分省份3个维度发展趋势具有一致性,且发展水平逐年上升。3)CSA3个维度下多目标间的相关关系以协同为主导,多目标协同程度影响3个维度发展的均衡性和CSA整体发展水平。其中,目标“农业经济韧性-生态碳汇”协同性最强,而目标“粮食产能-生态碳汇”表现为显著权衡,其余目标间相关关系各有其区域特性。研究区应从分阶段推进技术适配、实施差异化政策及优化目标协同管理3个方面进行CSA发展优化。研究结果可为CSA发展水平评估提供新框架,为缓解CSA多维权衡提供参考,有助于推动中国农业绿色转型及气候变化背景下粮食安全战略的实施。

     

    Abstract: Climate smart agriculture (CSA) is the current agricultural development trend for countries around the world to address the dual challenges of climate change and food security, the core of which lies in the pursuit of Pareto optimality in the three dimensions of “Productivity & Income - Climate Adaptation - Emission Mitigation”. Evaluating the development level of CSA is essential for guiding sustainable agricultural practices, particularly in China, where agriculture plays a pivotal role in national food security and rural livelihoods. Based on the theory of complex system collaboration, this study constructed an assessment framework for the development level of CSA around the above three dimensions, and quantitatively evaluated the development levels of CSA in each dimension and the climate smart index (CSI) in China’s major grain producing areas from 2013 to 2022. And analyze the synergy and trade-off relationships among multiple objectives in each dimension. The results show that: 1) the CSI of the China’s major grain producing areas increased from 0.052 to 0.403 from 2013 to 2022, which is at a lower level but with an upward trend, and the scores of the three dimensions of the CSA increased from 0.150, 0.119, and 0.110 to 0.624, 0.589, and 0.568 respectively, with fluctuating characteristics in line with the trend of the CSI. The score of Productivity & Income is generally higher than Climate Adaptation and Emission Mitigation, indicating that major grain producing areas are in the initial stage of CSA development. 2) The development level of CSA in the China’s major grain producing areas shows significant spatial non-equilibrium, with the spatial pattern moving from dispersal to agglomeration, the regional gap gradually narrowing. The major grain producing areas in North, Northeast, and Central China gradually forming contiguous Climate smart areas. The development trend of the three dimensions of the three dimensions of the majority of the provinces has a consistent trend, with the level of development increasing year by year. 3) The correlation between multiple objectives under the three dimensions of CSA is dominated by synergy, meaning advancements in one dimension often benefit others. The degree of synergy of multiple objectives affects the balance of the development of the three dimensions and the overall development level of CSA. Among the objectives, “Agricultural economic resilience - Ecological carbon sink” has the strongest synergy, while the objective “Food production capacity - Ecological carbon sink” shows a significant trade-off, and the correlation between the other objectives has its own regional characteristics. To accelerate CSA adoption, this study proposes phased technology adaptation prioritizing region-specific innovations, differentiated policy interventions tailoring support mechanisms based on regional disparities, and synergistic objective management optimizing trade-offs, such as integrating agroecology with precision farming. The study offers a novel assessment framework for CSA development, facilitating more nuanced evaluations of agricultural sustainability, and by identifying key synergies and trade-offs, it provides actionable insights for mitigating multidimensional conflicts in CSA implementation, supporting China’s agricultural green transformation and food security strategies in the face of climate change, while also serving as a reference for other developing economies grappling with similar challenges.

     

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