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基于连续变化监测和分类算法的作物轮作模式动态监测与分类识别

Dynamic monitoring and classification identification of crop rotation patterns based on continuous change detection and classification algorithms

  • 摘要: 精准快速识别小麦-玉米轮作区域对于中国北方地区耕地非粮化动态监测、主粮作物产能保障及农业可持续发展具有重要战略意义。该研究以河南省安阳市滑县为研究区,基于GEE云平台集成2018—2024年关键物候期Sentinel-2时序数据,构建光谱反射率及植被指数时间序列多维特征集,分别使用传统单时相方法和改进的连续变化检测和分类(continuous change detection and classification,CCDC)算法对研究区域内主粮-主粮、主粮-非主粮、非主粮-主粮、非主粮-非主粮等4种轮作模式进行动态分类识别。结果表明:1)传统单时相方法在两个生长季的主粮作物分类总体精度(OA)最高可达为96.8%、Kappa系数为 0.96,两季影像叠加后的轮作模式识别平均OA和Kappa系数分别为71.3%、0.63;2)改进的CCDC-ANN算法对4种轮作模式识别的平均总体精度为91.8%、Kappa系数为0.891,较传统方法提升约20%;3)研究区种植结构呈现出明显的空间异质性,西部丘陵地区以主粮–非主粮轮作为主,东部平原以主粮–主粮、非主粮–主粮为主;4类轮作模式在2018–2024年均呈“先增后降再回升”动态:主粮-非主粮模式波动最剧烈,主粮-主粮模式最为平稳(波动<5%),非主粮-非主粮与非主粮-主粮模式亦表现出明显的阶段性涨落。该研究方法实现了小麦-玉米轮作区域的精准提取,为中国北方地区开展耕地非粮化监测提供了方法支撑。

     

    Abstract: Non-grain cultivation on arable land has posed an ever increasing challenge on national food security in sustainable agriculture. Particularly, the winter wheat–summer maize rotation systems dominate cereal production in the North China Plain. It is therefore required to accurately identify and constantly monitor the crop rotation patterns for the land-use transitions. However, existing remote sensing approaches remain dependent largely on single-temporal imagery during optimal phenological windows. Cloud contamination can frequently cause to capture the continuous and nonlinear dynamics of multi-season cropping systems. In this study, a time-series framework was developed to identify the crop rotation patterns from dynamic monitoring data. Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was integrated with machine learning models using dense Sentinel-2 observations. A case study was also selected as the Hua County, Henan Province, China. The representative wheat–maize double-cropping region was characterized by spatial heterogeneity. All available Sentinel-2 Level-2A images were acquired from 2018 to 2024, and then processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The continuous multi-year spectral time series were constructed after image processing. A feature space was designed to characterize the crop phenology and surface conditions. Multi-spectral reflectance bands were incorporated with the six vegetation indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Bare Soil Index (BSI), Yellow Index, Normalized Difference Red Edge Index (NDREI), and Inverted Red-Edge Chlorophyll Index (IRECI). A systematic comparison was made on two classifications. One was an improved CCDC algorithm. The third-order harmonic regression was fitted into the pixel-level time series to explicitly capture intra-annual growth rhythms and long-term trends. Another was a conventional single-phase approach. Median composites were generated for the key phenological periods of wheat and maize. Annual rotation patterns were then inferred after seasonal overlay. Subsequently, the regression coefficients, harmonic components, amplitudes, and phase parameters from the CCDC model were input for Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers. The performance was evaluated using five-fold cross-validation and multiple accuracy metrics. The results demonstrate that the CCDC framework was achieved in the high accuracy, robustness and consistency to classify annual rotation patterns in the continuous crop transitions under variable atmospheric conditions. Among them, the highest performance was found in the CCDC–ANN combination, with an average overall accuracy of 91.8% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.891, which was improved by approximately 20% over the conventional approach. The superior performance of the ANN model was also obtained to learn complex nonlinear relationships in dense time-series features. Spatiotemporal analysis further revealed the substantial heterogeneity in the crop rotation patterns. Staple–non-staple rotations were concentrated in western hilly areas with the complex terrain, whereas the stable staple–staple and non-staple–staple systems were dominated in the eastern plains. Temporally, all major rotation types exhibited an “increase–decline–recovery” trajectory from 2018 to 2024. The great variation was primarily attributed to the policy adjustments, market dynamics, and environmental constraints. Overall, the CCDC–ANN framework can provide an accurate and scalable solution to map the wheat–maize rotation systems. The finding can also offer the strong potential to the regional monitoring of non-grain cropland and land use in modern agriculture.

     

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